Ageing NZ burden for GDP

Standard and Poor's is usually quite blunt when it comes to issuing rates on financial institutions and their products.

It even gets involved in rating the debt of countries around the world.

It was no surprise when the Melbourne-based office of the international firm warned that a growing ageing population, combined with a declining working age population, could increase pressure on the country's long-term fiscal position.

The report called "Global Ageing 2010: New Zealand", was published alongside one specifically prepared for Australia.

S&P credit analyst Kryan Curry said New Zealand's total age-related spending on health, pensions and aged care was expected to rise to nearly 21% of GDP in 2050 from 14.4% this year.

"Without further reforms to address these mounting spending pressures, increasing net general government debt over the period may weaken New Zealand's long-term credit quality."The increasing trend was in line with findings in the S&P global study, he said.

S&P projected that the government debt burdens of most advanced economies could reach unsustainable levels of more than 300% of GDP in the next 40 years, without fresh measures to address long-term age-related spending trends.

"In our view, population ageing will lead to profound changes in economic growth prospects for countries around the world and lead to heightened budgetary pressures from greater age-related spending needs."

Without appropriate budgetary adjustments, further pension and healthcare systems reforms, or structural measures to improve sovereign states' economic growth potential, S&P projections suggested that the future debt burden of the majority of sovereign states would increase to historically unprecedented levels, Mr Curry said.

However, New Zealand was ahead of many peers in responding to the ageing population challenges because of its fiscal flexibility, underpinned by low public debt and fiscal discipline.

The country had either introduced or announced policies directed at raising productivity and savings, promoting greater health care system efficiency, pre-funding pension entitlements and providing incentives for the long-term self-provision of retirement incomes, he said.

In Australia, age-related spending on health, pensions and aged care was estimated to rise to 14.4% of GDP in 2050 from its current 9.6%.

Without further reforms to address those mounting spending pressures, net general government debt could increase to 71% of GDP over the period, potentially weakening Australia's long-term credit quality, Mr Curry said.

Australia, like New Zealand, was well ahead of its peers in addressing many of the challenges raised in the report.

Reform was still needed to boost productivity, workforce participation, healthcare system efficiency and mandate self-provision of retirement incomes, he said.

Finance Minister Bill English believes that the recently published Government accounts for the year ended June 30 showed a move away from borrowing towards saving and that move is already reshaping the nature of the current economic recovery.

It meant the recovery was not being led by traditional "sugar fixes" of borrowing, consumption and retail spending.

"New Zealanders understand our need to rebalance the economy away from debt and spending towards saving and investment."

Early signs of progress were clear from estimates of movements in household equity in their homes, he said.

Treasury figures showed households withdrew several billion dollars of equity from their homes between 2003 and 2008, borrowing to boost their disposable incomes.

At the peak in 2007, the equity withdrawal exceeded $7 billion.

There had been a marked turnaround in behaviour since then, he said. Households were now reducing borrowing and injecting equity into their homes. - effectively saving.

In the year to March 31, 2009, that equity injection amounted to about $5 million.

 

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