Beef and cheese alone in achieving price rise

Beef was one of only two commodities to record a lift in the ANZ commodity price index for December, rebounding 12% in the month.

The index finished 2011 on a weaker note, slipping 0.8% in December and dropping to its lowest level in a year.

Since the peak in the series in May, the overall level of commodity prices has retreated 10%, over seven consecutive months of decline.

Eleven commodities recorded an easing in price levels in December, beef and cheese (up 1%) recorded rises and four were unchanged.

The largest declines were in wool and skins, which both fell 7%.

Log prices dropped 5% and lamb prices slipped 4%, while aluminium, kiwifruit and wood pulp all dropped 3%.

Beef export receipts last year accounted for nearly 4.5% of New Zealand's total exports, ANZ economist Steve Edwards said.

The expansion of the dairy herd over the past 10 years meant there was now a larger contribution of dairy beef to total production.

In 2011-12, the outlook was for a 1.8% increase in export cattle slaughter to 2.32 million head, driven primarily by an expected increase in the cow and heifer slaughter, linked to the dairy herd expansion in the South Island, but tempered by the export of dairy stock.

The 2010-11 export cattle slaughter increased 1.2% to 2.28 million, again largely driven by an increased cull-cow slaughter (up 5.7%) but offset by a reduction in the steer slaughter (down 3.2%) as a flow-on from a 14% reduction in beef breeding cows in the 2007-10 period.

The reduction in beef breeding cows was a combination of dairy expansion and drought in key producing regions in the North Island.

Overall, total beef export earnings increased by 13% in 2010-11, largely driven by a lift in pricing of 16% to $5920 per tonne, despite a stronger New Zealand dollar. Total export volumes decreased by 3%.

A consequence of the global economic slow-down had been consumers, particularly in the US, switching to cheaper sources of protein, or cheaper cuts of the same protein, and that trend was one of the main drivers of improved beef returns in 2010-11, Mr Edwards said.

In addition, many beef export countries, notably in the southern hemisphere, had suffered from unsustainable slaughter and production, an appreciation of their currencies and unfavourable government intervention.

That had led to to greater opportunities for New Zealand in the lucrative European market, where export returns per tonne were double those in most other markets. Total export earnings from Europe had subsequently jumped 50% in 2010-11.

Retail and wholesale beef prices in the US were at record high levels but continued demand would be a key factor in sustaining pricing over the next few months, Silver Fern Farms' latest market update said.

Asian market pricing remained flat to softer, and there were still delays in the issuance of import permits for Indonesia, a key volume market for selected beef cuts and offals. The current import quota for 2012 entry is 30,000 metric tonnes, down about 70,000 metric tonnes from 2011.

European markets for steer steak cuts were facing downwards price pressure due to recent price decreases in chilled high-quality beef from Argentina. That was a reflection of the slow demand in the northern hemisphere, the update said.

Australian beef production has now recommenced and production is expected to exceed 2011.

The increased volume of shipments from Australia and the US into Korea and Japan is expected to keep prices flat in coming months.

 

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