Friday's ANZ survey painted a picture of a nervous business sector but one which was still quietly confident of the way ahead.
At the same time, inflationary pressures kept nudging higher, yet not so much as to worry the Reserve Bank.
Chances were the quarterly survey would paint the same picture but, given the breadth and longevity of the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research survey, it would deliver a clearer picture of the nature and evolution of the current expansion, he said.
In terms of prospective economic activity, the survey's trading conditions outcome was the key indicator.
''We would not be in the slightest bit surprised to see this indicator fall further.''
Its previous seasonally adjusted reading of 25 was consistent with annual GDP growth of about 4%, much higher than the below 3% level at which the BNZ expected growth to settle.
Trading conditions as low as about 10 would be enough to support the view of the BNZ, although Mr Toplis did not expect them to drop that far.
More importantly, from a market perspective, would be the indicators of inflationary pressure. Last quarter, a net 22% of respondents said they expected selling prices to increase.
That was the highest reading since September 24, 2014, and consistent with the annual consumer price inflation quickly pushing up past the midpoint of the Reserve Bank's 1% to 3% target band, he said.
''We will become even more unequivocal in this view if measures of capacity utilisation and labour market tightness remain at their current levels of elevation.''
Tomorrow's QVNZ monthly house price data was expected to show the moderation in annual price inflation that other house price measures had already highlighted, Mr Toplis said.
Last month's numbers showed annual house price inflation of 13.5%. Something in the order of 12% to 13% could be expected
tomorrow.
Mr Toplis reminded people the September 23 election would continue to have some influence from now on.
''To the extent political polls can be believed - or more accurately, interpreted in any meaningful way - it's going to be a very interesting plebiscite indeed.''
Based on the BNZ's three-poll moving average, Mr Toplis estimated if an election was held today, National would have 55 seats and a Labour-Green coalition 52. Neither could rule without the support of New Zealand First, either formally or informally.
Whatever the outcome, policy pronouncements of all the major players needed to be watched with interest, just in case.
Of note was an address next Monday by Labour finance spokesman Grant Robertson, called a Modern Monetary Policy Framework for New Zealand. Although Mr Toplis was not sure of what he would say, the address was worthy of some attention, he said.
What was known was Reserve Bank governor Graeme Wheeler had been stressing to all who would listen the decision-making process within the bank was now run by a committee of the top four: Mr Wheeler, Grant Spencer, Geoff Bascand and John McDermott.
As such, while the Reserve Bank Act made the governor the sole arbiter of the cash rate, that was not how it was actually working.
Mr Robertson's speech might provide him the platform on which to offer the bank the opportunity to move formally into the space it already adopted informally, Mr Toplis said.
Also entering the political debate would be what to do with the increased revenue flow the Government was receiving.
An update would be delivered on Friday with the release of the Crown Accounts for the eight months ended February.
The BNZ expected the fiscal position to continue its strengthening trend.
''Here's hoping that in an election year, the respective parties can recognise building up surpluses, where possible, until they are required in a downturn, would be a worthwhile pastime.''
