''That's an economic expansion that is still going full steam.''
Releasing the ANZ Business Outlook yesterday, Mr Bagrie said business confidence lifted in May.
A net 15% of businesses were optimistic about the year head, up 4% on the previous month, marking the first constructive step up since September last year.
Sentiment lifted in manufacturing, retail and agriculture, was unchanged in the service sector and fell in construction.
A net 38% of businesses expected better times for their own business, unchanged since April but 10% above the historical average, he said.
All sectors were upbeat. Retail was at the low end at 22% and services was at the high end at 44%.
Survey indicators were elevated but not stratospheric, consistent with the economy evolving into a mature stage of the expansion.
''We're growing nicely off a good base as opposed to lifting rapidly off a low level.''
Beyond the normal political hand-wringing - more offshore than on - firms had good reason to be upbeat, Mr Bagrie said.
The dollar was in a zone that looked fair, commodity prices had recovered and construction and tourism continued to boom.
Interest rates were low and the spectre of higher interest rates was not weighing on sentiment.
However, history showed New Zealand could be due for a visit from the ''Grim Reaper'' next year as 2008, 1998, 1978 and 1968 were all not great years economically.
Some of those years featured global events, but many were self-induced corrections, he said.
ANZ economists were confident the pattern would be averted this time by the combination of housing shortages as there was normally an excess supply at this stage in the cycle.
Also, less exuberant consumer spending was helping tame inflation and keeping the Reserve Bank at bay.
Loan-to-value restrictions were helping, as banks were reining in credit growth at the top of the cycle, Mr Bagrie said.
''It all means the good times can go on longer. Excellent.''
