Fonterra Co-operative Group recently announced an opening forecast farm-gate milk price of $7 a kilogram, matching the opening forecast for last year.
At the same time, Fonterra confirmed it was reducing this season's payout from $8.65 to $8.40, citing a string of weak auctions on the Global Dairy Trade platform.
Federated Farmers dairy chairman Willy Leferink said the latest forecast was much higher than anticipated.
''It is a pleasant surprise, you could say.''
Brightview farm owner Chris Adams said this season's payout was fantastic but it was still disappointing to lose 25c right at the end.
It was money that now could not go back into the economy, as there was less to spend on farm machinery and other things, he said.
Dairy farmer Tony McDonnell, of Chrystalls Beach, had seen the milk payout figure rise and fall during more than 25 years in the industry.
''It depends on what people budget for,'' Mr McDonnell said.
''It will really affect people if they were expecting it to be about $8.''
However, if they were conservative and budgeted their farm working expenses to be about $6, they would be fine.
''As long as it stays within the $6 to $8 range, that is fairly normal and most people will live with that.''
Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited chairman John Wilson said the $7 forecast reflected the current market situation.
''Our farmers understand the realities of dairy commodity price cycles, and will exercise caution at this early stage in the season,'' Mr Wilson said.
Industry body Dairy New Zealand said farmers would be celebrating this season's confirmed $8.40 farm-gate record milk price and communities would be the biggest beneficiary.
However, next season's forecast was a reality check that price volatility was part of the business for farmers.