Fletcher leaving NZX would create big hole

Peter Young
Peter Young
A move by Fletcher Building to list on the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) and delist from the NZX would leave a huge hole, Forsyth Barr broker Peter Young said yesterday.

The issue about Fletcher Building relocating across the Tasman was an ongoing one in tough times as the ASX put pressure on large listed New Zealand companies with the "promise" of better market exposure, he said.

Fletcher chief executive Jonathan Ling was quoted yesterday as saying pressure was mounting on his company to move its headquarters across the Tasman.

Such a move could help lift the share price of New Zealand's third largest public company.

The share price has more than halved in the past 12 months.

The company's market capitalisation has fallen from $6.6 billion in May last year to around $3.2 billion yesterday.

Mr Ling said that apart from the desired price boost, a move to Australia could increase the company's profile on the global stage and stimulate interest among Australia's deeper pool of domestic investors.

"Shifting our operations is something the company has thought about in the past but is not pursuing right at this moment. It's not a decision to be taken lightly.

"There is plenty of pressure for us at the moment to be included in the [ASX] listed index because of the argument we would trade at less discount and thus the share price would go up.

"Of course, there is no certainty of that," he said.

Mr Young said any move by Fletcher to leave the NZX would be a blow.

New Zealand needed to retain listed companies like Fletcher Building.

"We used to be seen, and we still are in some quarters, as a market that pays good dividends and has income stocks.

But overseas investors have bailed on us recently.

"If Fletcher Building left, it would be a big dint in our market."

Fletcher Building was due to report on August 13 and Forsyth Barr had downgraded its forecasts, Mr Young said.

"While we have downgraded our forecasts, Fletcher Building's current price is factoring in an earnings outlook well below our target."

There was enough comment around the markets regarding proposed projects in NZ to suggest Fletcher was good buying, he said.

The projects included dairy industry investment and Transpower expecting $7 billion of projects in the next three years through to the Government committed to investing in hospitals, education facilities and upgrading Mt Eden prison.

The things that had changed since the last downgrade included Forsyth Barr lowering its earnings from Placemakers and Winstone Wallboards, further downgrading earnings related to Firth and the gas crisis in Western Australia bringing forward the risk of lower earnings from Laminex.

Unchanged factors included a robust outlook for New Zealand and Australian infrastructure; the outlook for Fletcher Steel remaining positive with improving margins; and the insulation arm likely to improve after 18 months of performing below expectations, Mr Young said.

 

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