The latest Situation and Outlook for Primary Industries, released by the Ministry for Primary Industries, showed the boost to New Zealand export growth was expected to be strongest in the dairy, forestry and horticulture sectors.
Those sectors were expected to lead a 10% increase in export value from June 2017 to June 2018.
Export revenue was expected to reach $36.7billion in the year to June 2016, a rise of $1billion from a year ago and a 3% increase.
It was a pleasing result given the global volatility in dairy prices, Primary Industries Minister Nathan Guy said.
Dairy export revenue was down 6%, which was "disappointing but no surprise'' and issues such as Russia's trade sanctions, the removal of EU dairy quotas and low oil prices all had an effect, Mr Guy said.
MPI expected dairy export prices to gradually rise from December as global demand and supply began to rebalance.
The medium to long-term outlook for dairy remained strong, with population and income growth on New Zealand's "doorstep'' in Asia.
The dairy industry was now firmly focused on factors it could control, such as reducing unnecessary costs and improving productivity and that work would have long-term benefits for the sector when prices recovered, "as they inevitably do'', he said.
Horticulture had been the "star performer''.
Export revenue had grown 20% on June 2015 figures and was estimated to exceed $5 billion for the first time by June 2016.
It was well on track to achieving its goal of reaching $10billion in export earnings by 2020.
Kiwifruit, wine, apples and pears were driving the sector's success.
Production growth was expected to continue in future years as increased plantings came to maturity, the report said.
Strong beef prices had driven increased slaughter rates and contributed to meat and wool export revenue increasing to $9.1billion for the year ending June 2016.
However, herd size decreases, and lower cow slaughter rates as dairy herds stabilised, would continue to shrink production in the coming years.
Export revenue was forecast to drop to $8.3billion in 2016-17 and then rise to $8.8billion by 2019-20.
Wool exports were expected to remain strong, based on demand from China, and venison exports were supported by increasing shipments of higher-value chilled meat.
Overall, MPI expected primary sector exports to reach a value of $43.9billion in 2019-20, up $7.2billion (19.5%) from 2015-16.
In 2012, the ministry announced the goal of doubling primary sector exports to $64billion in real terms by 2025.
The latest (nominal) forecast of $44billion for the year ending June 2020 left more to do to achieve that goal, the report said.











