Optimism for sustainable NZ economy recovery

Shamubeel Eaqub
Shamubeel Eaqub
Forecasters are optimistic the economic recovery is sustainable, a survey shows.

The NZIER consensus forecasts survey, published on Tuesday, combines responses from 10 financial institutions, including the Reserve Bank, Treasury and retail banks.

The June survey is remarkable for the amount of positive feeling generated in the responses, particularly around the recovery, increasing employment and a strong export outlook.

Upward revisions to GDP (gross domestic product) growth forecasts stabilised in the June quarter.

GDP data out today is expected to show growth of 0.6% in the March quarter, with growth of 0.9% expected in June.

Economic growth was expected to be strong at 3.2% in the year to March 2011.

Economic growth would remain strong at 3.3% to March 2010 with a wide range of forecasts, from 2.2% to 4.2%, indicating some uncertainty on the outlook.

Forecasters said unemployment had peaked.

They expected it to have peaked at 6% in the March 2010 year, and be better than the 7.2% forecast in the previous survey.

"This reflects a surprise dip in the unemployment rate in the March 2010 quarter, from 7.1% to 6%," New Zealand Institute of Economic Research chief economist, Shamubeel Eaqub, said.

The unemployment rate was expected to gradually drop to 5.3% in the March 2012 year, in line with an improving economy.

Improving global activity, particularly in Asia, had boosted export forecasts.

Forecasters expected exports to grow strongly in 2011 (3.5%) and 2012 (5.3%).

There was a wide divergence of views on the exchange rate and that was reflected in a wide band of export forecasts, he said.

Imports were expected to recover in line with the domestic economy.

The trade balance might worsen as imports grew more strongly than exports.

The current account deficit was expected to deteriorate, Mr Eaqub said.

Consumer price inflation would spike because of GST and other administered charges, peaking at 5.1% in March 2011.

Household spending would be subdued, despite personal tax cuts, because of a slow recovery in jobs, wages and the inflation spike eroding households' purchasing powers, he said.

 

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