New Zealand's service industry lost a bit of steam in January and it was difficult to know if it was anything more than the usual monthly bounce-around, BNZ senior economist Craig Ebert said.
The slowing of activity, as measured by the BNZ-BusinessNZ performance in services index, was still worth pointing out, he said.
The seasonally adjusted PSI was 55.4 last month, still above its long-term average of 53.9. But it was down on December's 58.5 and the eight-year high posted in November.
A reading above 50 indicates expansion.
The higher the number, the stronger the expansion.
Otago-Southland and Canterbury-Westland were both on 51.8 in January, central was on 52.4 and northern on 53.9.
Otago-Southland Employers Association chief executive John Scandrett said the region had tracked backwards from the high 68-point-plus readings recorded in November and December.
"We are still comfortably in expansion mode with operator comment widely citing solid consumer demand and good weather patterns delivering acceptable performance outcomes.''
Not surprisingly, seasonal trading trends had emerged to again pitch retail and tourism spending within the expected positive bands, he said.
Likewise, there was the usual holiday-period slowdown across wholesale and business support services activity.
Activity levels and new business sub-indices provided positive forward indications of ongoing sector strength, Mr Scandrett said.
New BusinessNZ chief executive Kirk Hope said January's PSI result had a notable seasonal aspect to it.
While the proportion of positive comments (59.7%) continued to dominate, those mentioning the Christmas holiday break were notably stronger, with respondents outlining negative influences on activity over January.
"On the plus side, there were a noticeable number of comments related to both domestic and international tourists assisting activity,'' he said.
Mr Ebert said January's PSI remained strong enough to suggest annual gross domestic product growth running in the range of 3% to 4%, although the BNZ was forecasting economic growth closer to 2.5%.
The most obvious deceleration in the PSI came in retail trade, with its unadjusted index for January at 49.5 compared with 62.8 a year ago.
However, it was hard to believe retail spending was going flat with January's electronic card transactions doing "relatively well''.
"This follows what we think will be a 1% lift in real retail trade in quarter four of last year, in figures due for publication by Statistics New Zealand on Wednesday morning.''
In support of ongoing expansion in retail spending were high net immigration, booming tourism, consumer confidence, construction, low inflation and a robust labour market, he said.
