Tobacco products push up inflation

Rising cigarette and tobacco prices help lift the ANZ monthly inflation gauge in January. Photo from Reuters.
Rising cigarette and tobacco prices help lift the ANZ monthly inflation gauge in January. Photo from Reuters.
Higher tobacco and cigarette prices made the large contribution to the ANZ Monthly Inflation Gauge last month, something which has come to be accepted as typical in January.

Prices for the gauge rose 0.5% in January and were up 2.2% for the year ended January.

Purchase of housing, dwelling insurance and property maintenance services rounded out the top four contributions to the rising inflation gauge.

Without the higher contribution from tobacco and cigarette prices, the underlying gauge was flat, ANZ chief economist Cameron Bagrie said yesterday.

''Rents have been levelling off, which is somewhat puzzling given tightening housing supply.''

Technically, rents fell, which was at odds with a tightening housing supply. Whether that reflected monthly ''noise'' remained to be seen, he said.

Falls were also noted in accommodation services and domestic air services.

Once again, the market was left musing over the path for inflation, Mr Bagrie said.

''The past few months we've noted some early signs of movement but a failure of anything to manifest in a material, sustained fashion over a succession of months.

''This may reflect the reality of dealing with inherently volatile monthly data. Or it may reflect the continuing evolution of inflation and price-setting behaviour itself.''

The onus was clearly on inflation to ''turn up for the party'', and spend some time there, before the official cash rate (OCR) should be moved up.

Apart from the obvious pressure of housing, there was not much to go on at this stage, he said.

BNZ markets economist Stephen Toplis said the chances of the Reserve Bank moving the cash rate up this morning were as close to zero as it was possible to get.

The key point of focus was the bank's guidance on its future OCR track.

At the November Monetary Policy Statement, the bank maintained a distinct easing bias which was likely to be removed today, he said.

Market participants were angling for the central bank to publish a raised OCR towards the end of its forecast horizon.

''We reckon it will avoid this but wouldn't rule it out altogether. That said, note that by removing the easing bias, the bank's published future OCR track will actually edge up to 1.8% a quarter from the previously-published 1.7%.''

Making the Reserve Bank more concerned about inflation would be evidence the economy was performing well and, most importantly, there were now clear signs of published Consumer Price Index inflation turning upwards, Mr Toplis said.

The December CPI revealed a 0.4% increase in the quarter, lifting the annual reading to 1.3% - the first time annual inflation had come within the bank's target band of 1% to 3% since 2014.

Also, the result was 0.2% higher than the Reserve Bank had forecast when it put together its November report, he said.

Importantly, measures of core inflation also headed higher. In the fourth quarter, all but one of the core CPI measures the Reserve Bank monitored increased. The average of the six measures actually followed rose from 1.3% to 1.7%.

Global inflation appeared headed higher than anticipated, markets had become more optimistic about the global outlook and dairy sector revenue continued to improve, Mr Toplis said.

''To cap things off, headline inflation is almost certain to push even closer to 2% when the March quarter out-turn is published.''

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