Research by University of Otago data analyst David Hood, using statistics from public sources such as the Dunedin City Council, the Otago Regional Council, NZ Transport Agency Waka Kotahi (NZTA) and the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE), showed bus patronage in the city was up 11% from this time last year, cycling was up 14.4% and pedestrian traffic counts were up 34.3%.
In the wake of the United States and Israel’s war on Iran, fuel prices had increased by 28% for petrol and 74% for diesel over the past year, but electronic card spending on fuel had only increased by 17%, which strongly suggested less spending on fuel.
Mr Hood said it appeared Dunedin residents were prioritising buying food and paying for heating over fuel to take the car to work.
“We’ve all seen the general economic news.
“We know that life is getting pretty hard for a whole bunch of people.
“There is a general mode shift away from cars, towards other transport.”
While the data showed light vehicle use had only dropped by 2.6%, and heavy vehicle by 1.1%, he believed the overall drop across the city might be much higher.
The statistics were measured using NZTA traffic counters on the state highways coming in and out of Dunedin, so it only measured the movements of people living on the periphery of the city or in more rural areas who had to drive to work from places like Mosgiel/Taieri or Waikouaiti/Waitati, he said.
“They’re likely to be what I would call obligate driving — driving that you have to do because there’s no public transport where you live. So we’re missing the people nipping down to the local shops who never pass the NZTA traffic counters.
“But what is being picked up is an 11% increase in bus patronage, which is great; a lot more people cycling; and quite a lot more people walking.”
He said the rise in fuel costs had not just caused a change in transport modes.
“Checking the days of the week suggests less travel across all modes, particularly on Wednesdays and less so on Mondays.
“This does look a lot like what you would see if there was more work from home taking place.”
Mr Hood said he completed the survey purely out of his own interest.
“Some people do crosswords, I break down what the data says about things going on in the world.”
He was inspired to do the research after noticing an increase in the number of other pedestrians walking to work each day.
“I had a gut hunch something was happening, because me and other pedestrians walking in were just seeing a lot more people at crossings.
“I wondered if the data actually reflected that.”
Otago Regional Council planning and transport general manager Anita Dawe said bus patronage had increased, but not to the extent found by Mr Hood.
“Overall, bus patronage for the 2025/26 financial year increased by 0.3%.
“We’re pleased to see more people using public transport across the city and hope that those people become regular users, and share their experiences with others.”
Cycling advocacy group Spokes’ committee member Fraser Stephens said there had been a “step up in numbers” of cyclists in Dunedin and he believed it was “most certainly due to the fuel price increases”.
“Everyone, particularly car drivers, should be equally pleased when they see more cycling in the city: more bikes equals fewer cars, which equals less congestion, which equals better bus flows.
“It is a virtuous circle that makes Dunedin a more pleasant place in which to live and work.”
