5000 new houses needed to meet city's growth

New figures from CoreLogic show the average price of a house in Dunedin had jumped 18% and, at ...
Photo: ODT files
Dunedin should have room to accommodate more than 5000 new houses in the next 10 years.

However, demand for housing is expected to ease after 2034, as population growth is predicted to slow.

Areas where the new housing might go have not yet been revealed, but more is expected to be known in January, when consultation begins on a draft future development strategy.

The Dunedin City Council this week adopted the draft for the purpose of consultation, but any discussion of its content was held behind closed doors.

Determining housing "bottom lines", or the minimum capacity required, is part of the process.

For Dunedin’s urban environment, it was established there needed to be capacity for 5120 new dwellings in 2024-34 and then 1430 covering the following 20 years.

The 30-year total was 6550 dwellings.

An update in assessing housing capacity in October noted there had been significant changes in Dunedin’s housing market in recent years.

There had been a shift towards building duplexes and townhouses.

This type of building was described as attached homes and consents for them outnumbered standalone homes for the first time on record.

"This trend has also been observed in the other large cities in New Zealand, with attached homes now making up more than half of the new dwellings consents at the national level," the assessment said.

A key finding was Dunedin had sufficient development capacity over all timeframes for all housing types.

"The assessment also considered housing capacity in different parts of the city and concluded that there is sufficient capacity in all areas, except in urban areas on Otago Peninsula over the medium term [the next 10 years]."

The city council has assumed a high-growth scenario for population for the decade to 2034 and then medium growth.

If Dunedin followed a high-growth scenario for longer, there would be time to respond to that, a report for the council said.

In such a scenario, one response might be to accelerate infrastructure upgrades.

The city council is required to work with the Otago Regional Council in developing a future development strategy.

Its purpose is to promote long-term planning by setting out a high-level vision for the city.

In particular, objectives are to achieve well-functioning urban environments and provide enough land for housing and business development for the next 30 years.

Both councils will decide on infrastructure funding as part of their long-term plan processes in May.

A report about land available for business found more was needed for industry.

"The research found that there is unmet demand for industrial land of all sizes and more demand is likely in the future due to large infrastructure projects," a report for the city council said.

"With the exception of industrial land, no additional business land requirements were identified."