Early March looks set to be a key time for a potentially pivotal by-election in Dunedin — and not just because this is when the field of candidates will be confirmed.
It is also when issues confronting the Dunedin City Council will be to the fore.
Nominations for the by-election close on March 2.
On March 4 and 5, councillors will discuss annual plan draft budgets.
This means those already at the table are sure to talk about how steep the next rates rise could be, the proposed capital expenditure programme and debt, among other subjects.
The material covered may well influence the campaigning for who joins them.
The by-election has been low-key so far and this is likely mostly out of respect for the councillor to be replaced, Jules Radich, who died on January 4.
On Monday, the council came together to share tributes to the late former mayor and sitting councillor.
Nominations for the by-election open on Monday next week.
Some interest will build as candidates are confirmed through February and the likely momentum in March will be followed by voting opening on April 10.
Also worth noting is the closing date of May 12 could follow three days of annual plan hearings the previous week.
There is some uncertainty about the annual-plan timetable but, as things stand, it appears some by-election voting will happen at the same time as arguments are presented to councillors in public submissions about where money should be spent.
Candidates might think about the potential for a little late campaigning there.
The by-election timing was probably not really designed to assist voter turnout, but it may be helpful if this is the effect.
Voter turnout tends to be worryingly low for by-elections.
The Hamilton City Council election turnout last year was 33%.
Dunedin has traditionally fared better for voter engagement.
The Dunedin City Council election turnout last year was 45.47%. The low-profile Mosgiel-Taieri Community Board by-election in 2023 managed voter turnout of 32.13%.
Dunedin candidates and voters could be forgiven some election fatigue this year. Last year’s council campaign was unusually long. It was also expensive for some candidates.
The mayoralty contest was tight and the field pursuing 14 councillor positions was dauntingly large at 54. This presented a lot for voters to comprehend.
People will be conscious this year’s general election looms on November 7.
In the meantime, just one position is available in the council by-election and it is not yet known who the leading contenders will be.
A key element could be the extent to which there is recognition for how much difference voting in the by-election might make to the course of the council this term.
Several votes suggest it has been a finely balanced council so far.
In November, the under-threat Albany St cycleway survived via an 8-7 vote.
The council had another 8-7 vote that month regarding the approach that should be taken for establishing a homelessness outreach service.
In December, a motion seeking a review of legal advice about housing development and lead in soils was lost 8-7.
Depending on the political leanings of the candidate elected this May, the balance of councillor perspectives could be broadly maintained or shift a little.
This may help or hinder Sophie Barker’s mayoralty.
A by-election gives voters a chance to take into account who is at the table already before working out who might best be added to the mix.
The outcome could make quite a difference to the term.
