University of Otago infectious disease specialists say while there is an ‘‘extremely low risk’’ of the outbreak affecting New Zealand directly, it is not impossible.
DRC’s ministry of health officially declared the virus outbreak last Friday, and now Doctors Without Borders (MSF) is preparing to rapidly scale up its medical response in the country’s northeast.
On May 9 and 10, MSF received alerts of an increase in deaths from a suspected viral haemorraghic fever in the Mongwalu health zone of Ituri province.
In collaboration with DRC’s ministry of health, a team went to assess the situation and found 55 people had died since the beginning of April.
MSF also received subsequent reports that cases had been identified in Bunia and Rwampara health zones.
Congolese authorities said a total of 246 suspected cases, and more than 80 deaths, had been reported across the three health zones.
Then late last week, health authorities in neighbouring Uganda also confirmed a case of the virus in a 59-year-old Congolese man, who died on May 14.
The outbreak has been caused by the Bundibugyo Ebola virus — a strain that has no approved vaccine, and no approved treatment.
It is an infectious viral haemorrhagic fever, transmitted to humans through direct contact with blood, secretions, organs, or other bodily fluids of infected animals.
Human-to-human transmission occurs through close contact with the bodily fluids of infected individuals.
Symptoms include fever, fatigue, muscle pain and headache followed by vomiting, diarrhoea, rash and internal and external bleeding.
It has a 50% death rate.
University of Otago (Wellington) public health physician and epidemiologist Prof Michael Baker said the outbreak was defined as an ‘‘international concern’’ because it could cross borders and cause serious harm to neighbouring countries.
Much of the concern surrounded the fact the DRC was in the midst of a major conflict with a lot of civil disruption, making it difficult to contain the spread of the virus.
‘‘And because Congo had ‘‘very porous borders with other East African countries, it could be spreading as we speak.
‘‘Now you're starting to get cases in Uganda, and so that's a big concern.
‘‘And the fact that almost certainly, there are a lot more cases than have been identified.’’
Prof Baker said there had been examples in previous Ebola outbreaks where cases had been exported from African countries to Europe and the United Kingdom — ‘‘because they're only one flight away’’.
‘‘But those countries are very used to raising their threshold for detecting cases and have very good facilities for isolating them.
‘‘It's another big step for someone who's incubating infection to get as far as New Zealand.’’
However, University of Otago infectious diseases specialist Prof Kurt Krause said it was not impossible.
‘‘It's certainly very unlikely, but you can't rule out anything, because the international community is so well connected now.
‘‘We're only one or two flights away, so if somebody who was infected with this strain of Ebola virus, was to get on a plane and fly here directly, and then get sick en route, then there's always that possibility.’’
He said the WHO had now imposed controls for the affected countries and the adjacent countries, and the odds of the virus leaving those areas was extremely rare.
Prof Baker said New Zealand healthcare workers were being alerted to the rising risk.
