It seems 50c bus fares in Dunedin will not be a goer.
The Otago Regional Council has ditched a recommendation to lower Dunedin fares to get more people on buses, and instead will consult on a $2 adult fare in its next long-term plan.
Transport general manager Pim Borren said although this year’s "Dunedin fares and frequencies business case" recommended a 50c adult Bee Card fare, he would not.
His recommendation, which councillors approved for consultation, included the business case’s increased service frequencies and operating hours for buses, but it did not include the recommended drop in adult fares.
The business case recommended a fare structure and service pattern designed to increase the number of people taking the bus to work or education to a goal of 8% of all commuter trips — up from the present 4%.
But Dr Borren said with the disruption of the past few years, including Covid-19 service changes and the bus driver shortage, the council should be wary of the business case’s conclusions, "and keep the powder dry on the fare reduction".
"We need to remember that modelers are good at modelling based on the information that they have available — and the information has fluctuated all over the place.
"From my perspective, I would suggest that you take a bit more time and collect that data."
The business case suggested that Dunedin people were very price-sensitive, he said.
Consequently, it would suggest that reduced fares would mean "a lot more people would hop on the bus".
The modelling suggested that if fares were dropped to $1, patronage would almost double, and the council would get almost the same amount in fare revenue, he said.
Still, he called for "six or 12 more months" to find out if fare differences had had an impact or not.
"We just don’t have enough data to know what the impact of going back to $2 has had on patronage."
What the council had seen was a "massive growth" in patronage.
"We’re trying to double our commuter patronage, but we’ve already seen 32% [growth] since pre-Covid, which has been quite surprising, without significant change to fares."
He did note the increasing cost of living was likely to be putting more people on buses, but said it was difficult to raise fares after they had been dropped.
It would also be difficult to maintain a position where Dunedin fares were lowered and Queenstown’s were not. And there were "other levers that can get people on to buses".
The council wanted local councils to support the regional council in getting more people on buses.
"And that means less car parking, more expensive car parking and any other way we can get that support.
"Dunedin City has actually got a target as part of its carbon-reduction policy of increasing public transport to 18%," Dr Borren said.
"To get anywhere near 18%, we need help from them.
"Simply reducing fares, and having more buses, some of which will be empty, without that support from the [council] around this business case and that partnership, in my view isn’t a smart thing for us to be doing."
It should be remembered there was "no such thing" as free fares and central government was "very against" fare reduction at this time, he said.
Public transport was heavily subsidised by central government — a 51% subsidy — and beyond that there were two ways to pay for public transport locally, through a fare or through rates.
Cr Elliot Weir argued for lower fares and was the only councillor to vote against consulting on $2 fares.
