The latest justice sector projections were released by the Ministry of Justice recently.
The 10-year forecast indicates the total prison muster is likely to increase 15%, from 8200 in late 2022 to an expected 9400 in mid-2032.
The increase is expected to be driven by an increase in remand prisoners, due to court delays and more people being kept behind bars until their cases are heard.
While fewer cases were expected to go before the courts, those which did were expected to be more serious, the report said.
Department of Corrections acting national commissioner Ben Clark, said the projections would not significantly impact its operations and planning, either in the Southern Region or at a national level.
"[The projections] are just one factor that we consider in this ongoing work,’’ Mr Clark said.
However, corrections was continuously reviewing its entire prison network to ensure its staffing numbers and facilities around the country were able to meet the demands of the current prison population, he said.
Corrections had been making a concerted effort to recruit, retain and train staff to ensure it was well-placed to manage any future rise in the prison population.
The Southern Region had a relatively low level of vacancies, with only 46 custodial vacancies across the 891 custodial roles at the five prisons in the region.
Not all of the roles needed to be be filled for prisons to operate safely, he said.
Like any organisation, there was a natural turnover of staff and a level of vacancy was built into its operating model.
Considerable work had been done to ensure there was enough capacity in the prison network to accommodate any potential future increase in the prison population, he said.
It was important to note the projections represented only one possible future, and did not reflect the impact of any future legislative, policy, operational or procedural changes.
The previous forecast, in 2017, had projected the prison population would increase from 10,300 to 14,400 in June 2027.
However there had been a 22% reduction in the prison population from its peak of 10,820 in March 2018.
Corrections was already managing a much higher proportion of remand prisoners than been previously experienced and was working to better support the remand population to reduce reoffending.
It was also working towards a long term reduction in the remand population through the High Impact Innovation Programme, which encompassed several initiatives which aimed to improve information flows to judiciary and parole boards, along with providing increased support for people in the justice system in order to improve the likelihood of someone complying with any conditions imposed on them.
One example was the bail support service, which aimed to strengthen and ensure the timely submission of bail applications, and support people with any unmet needs such as accommodation.
People who engage with the service were more likely to achieve bail, and less likely to breach their conditions or reoffend.
Corrections was committed to keeping the public safe, reducing reoffending and giving people in prison every opportunity to turn their lives around, Mr Clark said.
