Otago and Southland are experiencing a higher rate of infections following the Covid-19 cases peak than anywhere else in New Zealand.
The southern region, as the rest of New Zealand, had reached its case peak during the Omicron outbreak, but the disease was still a stubborn presence, University of Otago Wellington epidemiologist Michael Baker said.
"The South Island as a whole is certainly still much closer to its peak than anywhere else," he said.
The case peak in the Southern District Health Board region, 1631, was recorded on March 23, but there have been 11 days on which cases have exceeded 1000 since then.
The southern region reported 937 cases yesterday, 12.3% of the national total of 7592 and the highest number of cases per 100,000 people.
Those 937 cases equalled 57% of the peak figure.
"That is the highest in the country because pretty much everywhere else in the country, apart from the West Coast, is now well below that," Prof Baker said.
"The region continues to need to take precautions because case numbers remain relatively high."
Sunday and Monday’s case numbers are usually lower, a reflection of slower reporting rates of positive cases during the weekend.
However, this weekend’s combined numbers for southern, 1756, were rare as they were an increase from 1693 the previous week.
"Most places in the country have been dropping back so that is quite surprising," Prof Baker said.
"That fits with the idea that in some parts of the region that there are still rising case numbers."
Last week, the head of the Southern District Health Board’s Covid response, Dr Hywel Lloyd, warned that daily reported case numbers were highly variable and regional, which made it difficult to know if all, or only some, of the South, had experienced its peak.
Epidemiologists expect that the peak in Covid-related hospitalisations will come a fortnight after the cases peak.
Yesterday, 29 people in the southern region who had Covid-19 were in hospital: 17 were in Dunedin Hospital (two in intensive care), nine in Southland Hospital, two in Dunstan and one in Lakes.
A further 341 cases were reported in Dunedin yesterday (2457 active cases), 206 in Invercargill (1851 active case) and 124 in Queenstown-Lakes (1056 active cases).
There are 817 active cases in Southland, 593 in Central Otago, 375 in Waitaki, 350 in Clutha and 338 in Gore.
Nationally, 640 people were in hospital yesterday and the Ministry of Health recorded 11 more deaths of those who had Covid-19, taking the national toll so far to 500.
Prof Baker said the southern region had had a prolonged peak, possibly because it had several population centres, and it was now likely to have a long tail of cases as well.
"I have been surprised how long the tail has been and it has been more extended in New Zealand than in Australia.
"In the South Island and some rural parts of the North Island it has been really quite slow how the virus has transmitted between population centres," he said
