It appears southerners can safely dust off their deck furniture.
Just-released forecasting data suggests the region may be in for a warmer-than-average summer.
The consensus from international models was El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions were most likely for the December 2019 to February 2020 period, Niwa National Climate Centre principal scientist Chris Brandolino said.
New Zealand’s coastal waters warmed during November 2019, and the most ‘‘anomalously warm waters’’ were near the eastern South Island, he said.
More broadly, sea surface temperatures (SST) both west and east of New Zealand were above average, and those well north of the country were near or slightly below average, he said.
"The presence of above average regional SSTs will likely have some influence on New Zealand’s air temperatures during the summer season, either modifying any cooler air attempting to arrive from the southwest or enhancing warmth around the country."
Niwa’s outlook shows temperatures in Southland and inland Otago are equally likely to be near average (35% chance) or above average (40% chance); rainfall totals are equally likely to be near normal (40% chance) or above normal range (40% chance); and soil moisture levels and river flows are about equally likely to be near normal (35% chance) or above normal (40% chance).
In coastal Otago, temperatures are likely to be above average (45% chance); rainfall totals are most likely to be near normal (40% chance); and soil moisture levels and river flows will most likely reflect climatology because there are no favoured outcomes.
