MetService is warning a cyclone is likely to brew in the Pacific in the coming days, and parts of the country recovering from recent extreme weather could be in for another thrashing should it pass close by.
However, the national forecaster has lifted all remaining severe weather warnings, the first time the country has been in the clear for over a week.
It follows over a week of severe weather across the country, where rain pummelled the upper North Island and caused extreme flooding, killing four people in Auckland.
And the South Island has also been mired in a week of extreme weather, with the mainland experiencing sweltering heat, seeing temperatures well into the 30s in some places.
MetService meteorologist Jessie Owen said the coming week promised lower temperatures around the country and a reprieve from sticky and humid conditions in the north.
Auckland is in for more rain today, continuing into the week. Showers will fall about the west of the city this evening, with fine spells developing.
A mainly fine, 24C Tuesday is forecast as people return to work following a long Waitangi weekend hampered by dreary and cloudy clean-ups from last week’s deluges.
Owen said a cyclone was likely to develop in the Coral Sea, between New Caledonia and Australia in the Pacific from a tropical low-pressure system in the next few days.
Hauraki Gulf Weather explained the “convective hot towers punching into the stratosphere” was likely to become a tropical cyclone on Wednesday.
The forecaster said it was “still early days and a lot can change,” but called current tracking a “concerning trend for the upper North Island”.
The potential tropical cyclone was expected to “possibly [move] towards the far north of New Zealand” at the weekend.
“If this system does pass close to the North Island, it will be another significant weather event potentially affecting vulnerable areas which are still recovering from recent severe weather,” MetService said.
MetService said the storm could cause strong winds, heavy rain and large swells on the country’s eastern coasts should it pass nearby.
“It is important to emphasise that the cyclone’s path is still uncertain as the system hasn’t yet developed.
“We will have a much better idea about the path this system will take, and any related severe weather, in another couple of days once it has formed,” Owen said.
More immediately, he said a high-pressure system to the west of New Zealand should bring more settled weather in the next few days before a cold front brings showers and cooler temperatures on Wednesday.
“The front that moved up the country on Sunday has weakened and will clear the North Island tonight, taking with it the humid air which has been bringing heavy rain to northern areas and hot temperatures to the south. It should start to feel a bit cooler this week.”
The finer weather could prove brief: “All eyes are now on the tropics,” MetService said.
