The coalition parties have extended their lead over the left bloc, but Labour remains the highest-polling party.
Labour, National, and New Zealand First are all up on the previous poll in December, while Act and the Greens, and Te Pāti Māori have all taken dips.
- Labour: 34.4 percent, up 2.8 points (43 seats)
- National: 31.5 percent, up 1.5 (39 seats)
- New Zealand First: 11.9 percent, up 3.8 (15 seats)
- Greens: 7.7 percent, down 3.1 (10 seats)
- Act: 7.0 percent, down 1.9 (9 seats)
- Te Pāti Māori: 3.0 percent, down 0.1 (4 seats)
For parties outside of Parliament, TOP is on 0.7 percent (-0.9 points), NZ Outdoors and Freedom on 0.6 percent (-0.4 points), New Conservatives on 0.3 percent (-0.7 points), and Vision NZ is on 0.3 percent (no change).
The results would give the coalition 63 seats (up 2), while the opposition would have 57 (down 2).
The TPU-Curia poll's calculation assumes there would be no overhang seats for National and Te Pāti Māori, but that Te Pāti Māori would retain at least one electorate seat.
Christopher Luxon is still ahead of Chris Hipkins as preferred Prime Minister, on 19.5 percent (down 0.2), while Hipkins is on 18.0 percent (up 0.2).
Winston Peters is on 9.7 percent (up 1.2), David Seymour is on 7.1 percent (up 1.1), and Chlöe Swarbrick is on 5.5 percent (down 2.1).
Net country direction, or "right track, wrong track", was on -16.4 percent, a drop of 9.8 points.
The survey showed 32.6 percent of people said the country was heading in the right direction (-5.7 points), while 49.0 percent believe the country is heading in the wrong direction (+4.1 points).
The poll was conducted by Curia Market Research Ltd for the NZ Taxpayers' Union. It is a random poll of 1000 adult New Zealanders and is weighted to the overall adult population. It was conducted by phone (landlines and mobile) and online between Wednesday, January 14 and Sunday, January 18. It has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent.
Curia is a long-running and established pollster in New Zealand. In 2024 it resigned its membership from the Research Association New Zealand (RANZ) industry body.
Polls compare with the most recent poll by the same polling company, as different polls can use different methodologies. They are intended to track trends in voting preferences, showing a snapshot in time, rather than be a completely accurate predictor of the final election result.
