ACT New Zealand leader Don Brash, a former National Party leader who nearly won power in 2005, on current polling seems likely to lead another party to defeat at the election on November 26.
But unlike the 2005 election, this time the party Dr Brash leads could fail to win any seats in Parliament. If former National cabinet minister and Auckland mayor John Banks does not win in Epsom, Act is doomed.
According to internal polling revealed to the Otago Daily Times, the fate of Act is sealed unless there is a turnaround in support in the next five weeks.
The party's internal polling indicating just 2% support in the electorate shows it to be lagging well behind National's Epsom candidate Paul Goldsmith.
Despite Mr Goldsmith's pleas for voters to elect former National cabinet minister and Auckland mayor John Banks, Epsom voters appear to have had enough of being told what to do.
Mr Goldsmith is polling at 33% support in Epsom compared with Mr Banks on 19%.
Dr Brash, who deposed Rodney Hide - who won Epsom in 2008 - remains optimistic.
But the only positive signs in the Act poll of 1000 voters are that 18% favour a National-Act-Maori Party coalition and 9% favour a National-Act coalition.
Dr Brash told the Otago Daily Times more than a quarter of those polled wanted Act to be part of the next government.
Mr Banks was working hard and was taking nothing for granted in the campaign, Dr Brash said.
"It is in National's interests for Act to retain Epsom and I am confident of John holding it."
Dr Brash had a low-key visit to Dunedin this week. The last time he was in town, Dunedin still had an Act MP, Hilary Calvert, who was expecting to stand in November, but announced she would not be after learning she would be offered a lowly list position.
Act MPs Sir Roger Douglas, Heather Roy and John Boscawen are not standing again and Mr Hide was told not to bother applying, so no sitting Act MP will return after November 26.
This election could be Dr Brash's last act in politics, which began with his being defeated in safe National seat East Coast Bays by Social Credit candidate Gary Knapp in a 1980 by-election.
