The first time Nawaz Sharif became prime minister of Pakistan was almost 25 years ago. His second term was ended 14 years ago by a military coup that drove him into exile. Now he's back, a good deal older - but is he any wiser?
Pakistanis seem to think so - or at least Punjabis do. Almost all of the seats won by his Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) Party in last Saturday's election were in the province of Punjab, which has more people than all of Pakistan's other provinces combined.
That weakens the legitimacy of his victory, but with the support of some candidates who won as independents he will have no trouble in forming a majority government. The question is: what will that government do? Everybody knows
Mr Sharif is conservative, pro-business and devout - during his second term, he tried to pass a constitutional amendment that would have enabled him to enforce Sharia law - but he hasn't been very forthcoming about his actual plans for his third term. However, some of the things he has said have caused concern.
The thing most worrying the United States is his declaration Pakistan should end its involvement in the US-led ''war on terror''. The army is unhappy about his proposal the Government should negotiate with the Pakistani Taliban, rather than just fighting them.
And everybody is wondering what Mr Sharif will do about the economy. The country's balance of payments is in ruins, and it cannot meet its foreign debt obligations without negotiating new loans from the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.
Finally, the US will be withdrawing its troops from Afghanistan next year, and Mr Sharif will have to decide what he wants to do about the Taliban in that country (which still has the tacit support of Pakistan's army). The key to all these puzzles, oddly enough, may lie in his determination to improve relations with India.
India has a booming economy and it long ago lost its obsession with the agonies of Partition in 1947 and the three wars with Pakistan that followed. But the Pakistan army continues to be obsessed with the ''threat'' from India. If Mr Sharif could fix Pakistan's relations with India, a lot of his other dilemmas would also be solved.
In each of his previous terms, he tried to make peace with India, but was thwarted by the Pakistani army. The military chief of staff, General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, is to retire at the end of this year, which will give Mr Sharif a chance to replace him with someone less committed to antagonising India.
This would open the door to large-scale Indian investment in Pakistan andenable Pakistan to cut its military budget. And it would end the army's tacit support for the Taliban in Afghanistan, which is all about ensuring Pakistan has a friendly government in Kabul to give it ''strategic depth'' in its cold war with India.
The Taliban will, inevitably, be part of any post-occupation government in Afghanistan, but without Pakistani support it will have to strike a deal with other forces. That outcome would greatly mollify the US and make it easier for Pakistan to get new loans. It would also make it easier for the Government to negotiate a peace settlement with the Pakistani Taliban.
Then, maybe, Mr Sharif could finally get the Pakistani economy back on track. It's a long string of ifs, but nobody else on the Pakistani political scene seems to have a better plan.
