A survey reported on Maori TV's Native Affairs put Mr Harawira on 38 per cent support and Mr Davis just 1 per cent behind on 37, well within the poll's 4 per cent margin of error.
The contest for the country's northernmost Maori electorate is not only shaping as the tightest race in Northland, it is also the only one that could influence the election's overall result.
On current polling, Internet-Mana needs to win Te Tai Tokerau or face political oblivion. If Mr Harawira wins the seat, he could bring in an extra two to three MPs for the left. If Mr Harawira loses the seat, his party will need to win at least 5 per cent of votes nationwide to get into Parliament. Most polls show Internet-Mana hovering around 2-3 per cent.
The Mana Movement leader said the Native Affairs poll was flawed because only people with landlines were called. "My key voters, the young and the poor, don't have landlines, so the people who vote for me don't actually get asked."
Mr Harawira said it was nice to know he held the lead even among more conservative, landline-owning voters, "but it's disappointing to see Native Affairs still using flawed processes and presenting their results as fact".
The same poll in 2011 put him on 41 per cent and Mr Davis on 40, but the election night result was 49-40. Another problem with the poll was that is was conducted two months ago, Mr Harawira said.
Mr Davis said his rival had no choice but to dismiss the poll. If it had shown him 5 per cent ahead he would have said it was a good survey.
The poll reflected his own belief, and the party's own polling, that it was going to be a tight race. The survey's most telling finding, however, was that a majority of people felt Mana's alliance with Internet Party founder Kim Dotcom was not good for Te Tai Tokerau. It had created a sideshow that had obscured real issues such as jobs, housing, education and domestic violence.
Winning Te Tai Tokerau may be as crucial to Mr Davis' political future as it is to Mr Harawira's. If Mr Davis does not win the seat, Labour needs 29-30 per cent of the vote to get him in on the list. Polls show the party's support at about 25 per cent.
Mr Harawira disagreed Mr Dotcom had cost him support, saying the Internet-Mana roadshow had packed out halls all over the North.
By Peter de Graaf of the Northern Advocate
