Despite Ministry of Education concerns about declining secondary school rolls in Dunedin, some school leaders believe the rolls have hit rock bottom and can only increase.
The ministry's March roll return figures show Dunedin secondary school rolls have dropped by 743 pupils between 2005 and 2015 - the size of a secondary school.
School leaders have been tasked by the ministry to find solutions to the roll decline, which include closing one or more secondary schools in the city, establishing enrolment zones or implementing roll caps.
But some in the sector believe the tide is turning and, in the current economic climate, the ministry may be wise to wait before making any significant rationalisations.
Bayfield High School principal Judith Forbes said although her school's overall roll had declined steadily every year for the past decade, the school's year 9 roll had increased about 20% this year.
''We were getting year 9 intakes of around somewhere in the 70s, and this year we had 89.
''So we think we've turned the corner now and that our roll will start to grow.''
This year's year 9 intake was 45% boys and 55% girls, she said. Secondary rolls had fluctuated across the city over the decades, and she believed that would continue, she said.
''At one point in the past, our intake was 70% boys and only 30% girls.
''It would have been at a time when King's High School was in the doldrums and Queen's High School was riding high. The rolls shift around.
''It's been swings and round-a-bouts over a long, long period of time.''
While Logan Park High School principal Jane Johnson appreciated the ministry's concern about roll decline, she questioned its timing and believed it should take a wait-and-see approach in the interim.
''Why would the ministry close a school in this climate? ''They haven't mentioned immigration, they haven't mentioned the Gigatown win and the attraction of businesses which are already starting to roll out.
Mrs Johnson was ''cautiously optimistic'' Dunedin secondary schools had seen the worst of the roll decline, and the city would see growth in their rolls soon.
She said 600 people - many of them families - migrated to Dunedin last year.
''As well, businesses are already starting to multiply, we've got gaming businesses expanding, we've got people working from Dunedin rather than big cities because it's cheaper rent and super-fast internet ...
''It's starting to happen. I think we're turning around.''
Dunedin school rolls 2006-2015
