Meteorologist Lewis Ferris said while it had been dry, there had been some rain earlier in the month.
"[This fortnight] is signalled to be drier than average and current models are picking up high pressure to be more prevalent in the South for February, which will likely mean less than average rainfall too."
Some parts of Southland already had low soil moisture.
"So [last] week could prove very important for getting rain to to those dry places, as people shouldn’t count on average rain through the second half of January and the month of February — especially with temperatures being on the warmer side than average."
There had been a weak La Nina event in the past two months but it was expected to return to normal in February.
"Current models have February looking pretty typical La Nina — low-pressure systems in the north and Tasman Sea, high pressure draped across the South Island.
"This means we’ll be keeping an eye on tropical developments coming our way."
It was unlikely any tropical events would pose a threat to Southland.
"[It’s] always good to be aware of them, though."
From statistics dating back to 1939, July was the fifth-driest July on record at the Invercargill Airport station and September was the fourth-wettest September.
Statistics
Invercargill
Rainfall
2025 1039.4mm
2024 1359.3mm
average 986.1mm
Temperature
2025 max 29.9°C (Feb 16) min -3.2°C (4 Aug)
2024 max 28.1°C (Jan 19) min -4.7°C (13 Jul)
Wind
2025 max gust 137kmh (Oct 23)
2024 max gust 122kmh (Oct 20)
Gore
Rainfall
2025 937.2mm
2024 1117.4mm
average 921.7mm
Temperature
2025 max 30.2°C (Feb 16) min -3.2°C (Aug 4)
2024 max 29.3°C (Jan 19) min -4.2°C (Jul 15)
Wind
2025 max gust 124kmh (Oct 23)
2024 max gust 107kmh (Feb 19)
