A fresh start needed

New Prime Minister Bill English is understandably excited and positive about the change in leadership of the National Party which has meant his elevation to the top political job in the country.

Along with Deputy Prime Minister Paula Bennett, the two politicians will provide a contrasting but complementary team of a social southern conservative male prime minister and a female urban liberal deputy with Maori heritage.

But Mr English, for all his experience since first being elected in 1990 as the MP for Wallace, will face some considerable challenges in the months ahead. Not the least will be the prospect of leading the National Party to a fourth term in government whenever the election is called next year.

There has been some talk of an early election, to cater for the by-election needed if former Labour Party leader David Shearer, as expected, departs Mt Albert for a job in the United Nations. As an unelected prime minister, Mr English will be conscious of the need to stamp his authority on what is expected to be a new-look Cabinet and give voters a point of difference between the former John Key-led administration and his new team. An early election will not suit his plans.

So far, Labour has failed to take any advantage whatsoever of the change in leadership and it is not enough to say it is early days. Mr English and Mrs Bennett are particularly vulnerable over the lack of affordable housing, and social housing, because of their previous roles.

Mr English will need to prove he can shake off the image of being the foil for Mr Key. Sure, the two have been close working companions for 10 years. Mr Key was the showman of the Government and Mr English was the dry conservative, knocking back the plans of the big-spending Mr Key.

With the elevation of Steven Joyce to finance minister, the roles will be reversed. Mr Joyce firmly believes in picking winners and his Budget next year will be far different from the one Mr English would have written. Mr English may need to loosen his fiscal constrictions enough to encourage voters to continue supporting his leadership. Tax cuts and a family support package are on the agenda. The ongoing repairs following the Kaikoura earthquakes will continue to soak up a lot of the money. However, tax income is rising and government costs are falling, leaving money for increased spending next year.

Another challenge for the Government will be what to do about the eligibility age of superannuation. Mr English has indicated he will not be bound by any promises made by Mr Key, indicating the age of retirement could be gradually increased in the future. It is foolish to expect the age of retirement to stay at 65 years, particularly when New Zealanders are living longer and healthier lives. That said, an ongoing rise in population, thanks predominantly to new immigrants, is putting extra pressure on New Zealand's mainly creaking health system.

Increasing surpluses will mean Messrs English and Joyce have extra money to spend if the Prime Minister can just loosen his tight grip on the Crown finances.

It is 13 years since Mr English last led the National Party and he has matured significantly since then. The party has also changed since he led it to a disastrous election defeat. National has wide support across the regions and has a growing a support base in larger cities. This week, Mr English needs to demonstrate he does have new ideas and increased energy for what will be a difficult job, made more difficult by Mr Key probably contributing up to 5% to National's popularity in his own right. The MPs he selects for his new-look Cabinet need to provide fresh solutions for some of New Zealand's social problems while, at the same time, continuing to shield the economy from overseas threats - such as trade barriers being established by United States president-elect Donald Trump.