The next in Hamilton West will be anything but. National, as expected, won Tauranga by a whopping majority. Labour kept expectations low and campaigned half-heartedly.
The Greens did not compete, while New Zealand First — which once held the seat via leader Winston Peters — was nowhere to be seen.
Sam Uffindell replaced Simon Bridges as the electorate’s representative, and only became widely known after bullying allegations emerged against him.
Hamilton West MP Gaurav Sharma has made a series of strong accusations against Labour colleagues and the chief whip about the bullying of him and others.
Various other claims emerged, including that MPs were coached on how to avoid the Official Information Act.
Staff in Dr Sharma’s office, in turn, alleged bullying. Labour said it was trying to manage those issues. Plenty of drama ensued. Eventually, Dr Sharma was expelled from the Labour caucus.
This week, Dr Sharma resigned from Parliament. Yesterday, he was expelled from the Labour Party itself.
That last step was no surprise. Dr Sharma has exasperated Labour and the patience of Labour MPs had long run out. They were unable to manage him and his situation. Instead, a public mess ensued. Now, comes an unwanted by-election.
Dr Sharma says he jumped before he was pushed under the waka jumping law, the Electoral (Integrity) Act. Labour denies that that was going to take place
Labour’s position is more credible because a by-election could go badly for an under-strain Government and campaigning would cost precious party funds and much effort. Labour, as well, would receive criticism as it worked through the provisions of that Act.
The likes of former secondary school principals and medical doctors have regularly struggled with the nature of Parliament. They move from their power base and the deference with which they are familiar to enter a world of rough and tumble and compromise. As new and junior, they are at the bottom of the MP pecking order.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern is busy — like many a rugby coach — downplaying expectations for Labour in the by-election and therefore potential damage from a poor performance.
The seat has often been held by National, byelections usually see shifts against the Government, the swing in the last election to Labour was a Covid anomaly and Labour’s popularity has slid.
However, the seat majority was 6500 two years ago, National is under candidate selection pressure and the anti-Government vote will be split.
After sidestepping Tauranga, the Greens could do so again. Act is already talking about standing a well-qualified candidate. New Zealand First might seek more time in the limelight, and several fringe parties would pick up votes here and there.
Dr Sharma says he will be standing and will set up a "centrist" party. How many votes he can secure, and from where, will be of interest.
Dr Sharma lacked specific evidence for most of his claims and statements. His believability in these areas is weak.
He is also delusional about his own importance. He won largely on the back of the Labour landslide, and that vote will, mostly, desert him.
He will, in what is a common trait among smaller party personnel, have an inflated idea of his potential success. His friends and supporters will tend to tell him what he wants to hear.
That "centrist" part of politics is also a rather "squeezed middle". National is endeavouring to claim that space as is New Zealand First. Ms Ardern’s cautious instincts, too, drive her towards those voters.
The by-election will be a bye, bye election for Dr Sharma. He will be confined as a footnote to history, much to the relief of Labour MPs. When that occurs, they will feel that Dr Sharma has received appropriate karma after the troublesome and damaging drama he has caused.
