Power plays

Trying to improve the electricity market and cap ever-rising prices calls for skilled judgement, an open mind and a determined approach. 

Aspects of the Bradford reforms of the late 1990s - for all sorts of reasons - failed, and tweaking here and there since then made little difference.

Serious change was not tackled during the nine years of the Clark government.

National, led by Energy Minister Gerry Brownlee, is now having a go with a patchwork of ideas.

Central to these is to try to "rebalance" generation between the North and South Island to increase competition.

State-owned Meridian (mostly with stations in the South Island), Genesis and Mighty River Power will have to sell each other a set amount of electricity a year to lower the risk of shortages, and that might help.

As well, the strategy includes the forced sale by Meridian to Genesis of Tekapo A and B power stations.

These are the first generation steps in the massive Waitaki system, which holds 70% of New Zealand's hydro storage and which Meridian operates as part of its integrated generation, including hydro and wind power.

It is here that serious unease has emerged.

This is a concern felt not just by Meridian itself, which is claiming the sale will drive up South Island prices as well as having several other detrimental consequences, but also by engineers and perhaps by heavy-hitting Cabinet ministers - Bill English (Finance), Steve Joyce (Associate finance) and Simon Power (State-owned enterprises).

Being government-owned, Meridian could hardly come out and openly slate Mr Brownlee's proposals, but when the three ministers subsequently asked Meridian for its views, the company has wasted no opportunity to emphatically spell them out.

Its opposition to losing two sparkling jewels in its Waitaki crown was to be expected and the public in Otago has good reason to be suspicious of Meridian and its public relations spin.

But, despite his strong rejection of Meridian's views and his comment that Meridian could be expected "to fight its own corner", Mr Brownlee might still have to take notice.

South Islanders, in particular, will be horrified if there is any substance in Meridian's claim that, rather than increase competition and decrease prices, the forced sale will cause yet more price rises.

Politically, Mr Brownlee is in a pickle if this part of his plan, while sound in general competition theory, turns out to be impractical on the ground with lots of unhappy, unforeseen consequences.

He has the three senior ministers asking questions, and it must be wondered if they or their advisers are having doubts.

Even Mr Brownlee accepts the point that the sale will lower the value of Meridian - that is, reduce the value of a state-owned asset.

He and the Government could be forced to back down on this part of the latest reforms, and no doubt some excuse could be dredged up to try to save face.

That is better, though, than poor policy forced through for ideological reasons, with increased prices, less security of supply and a collection of other problems as a consequence.

The list of objections to the Tekapo sale are, at face value, impressive.

They start with a competing company owning and controlling the top two power stations and therefore most of the water downstream.

The problems flow from there.

Whatever the agreements hammered out between Meridian and Genesis, at the Government's insistence if necessary, how exactly will the sale facilitate the juggling of water that is part of running efficient hydro systems?

Control of water for irrigation and to maintain decent residual river flows will be split, as will storage to limit flooding.

Last May, Meridian was able to "bank" much of the runoff after storms and so spare the lower Waitaki the grief experienced on the flood plains of the uncontrolled Rangitata.

Meridian also warns about a loss in company value, resource consent difficulties, a reduced ability to meet water supply contracts, an effect on loan security and repayment, and the implications in any agreements with Genesis under the Commerce Act.

The public were fed the benefits of increased competition argument in the wake of the break-up of Electricorp, and for most Southern consumers they did not happen.

In principle competition is essential for efficiency and restraint on cartel-derived price gouging; it needs to be remembered that the failure of that principle sparked the latest round of proposals.

It is hard to see at this early stage anything like sufficient advantages to consumers in the disruption of the existing management and control of the Waitaki catchment.

No doubt the Government will be looking very carefully at this piece of its reforms, for more needs to be done to overcome well-founded Southern consumer scepticism that Meridian's claims might actually be well-founded - and the Government's confidence misplaced.

 

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