Thailand's crisis

The crisis in Thailand which left as many as 250 New Zealanders languishing in Bangkok has provided a domestic sideshow in which the actions of the Government and the new Prime Minister have been scrutinised.

Initially, Labour leader, and a former minister of foreign affairs, Phil Goff was restrained in his criticism, but as the potential gravity of the situation deepened and along with it at least an appearance of dithering on the part of the Mr Key, it became apparent that the honeymoon was over.

"Yesterday, we faced a real threat . . . [which] could have turned to custard; there could have been violence," Mr Goff said.

"And yet Mr Key said yesterday there was no contingency plan. Frankly that's unbelievable."

In contrast to the decisive authority of Helen Clark, next to whom Mr Key's every action will be measured for some months to come, the Prime Minister did momentarily seem less than commanding.

There may have been few options open to him, but the trick of appearing in control - one that Miss Clark performed with a magician's ease - is to act early and confidently.

That said, the fallout is negligible and the issue - in the face of the many others confronting the new Government - remains a sideshow, now largely behind us.

The same cannot be said of the eight-day occupation of Suvarnabhumi International Airport, the subsequent disbanding of the Thai Government and dismissal of the Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat.

At a time of retrenchment and global recession, the stranding of up to 250,000 international travellers, as well as costing the country's tourist industry an estimated $US28m a day, will have caused irreparable damage to Thailand's reputation as a friendly and safe destination.

Worse, the entire episode has highlighted the extent of the constitutional crisis now facing Thailand.

The actions of the constitutional court in disbanding the People Power Party (PPP) government on charges of vote-rigging, while also ending the airport occupation and thus solving the crisis in the short term, may have harmed the prospects for democracy in the longer term.

A political vacuum now exists and while it is likely that MPs of the governing PPP-led coalition will simply reappear in the guise of another party - Puea Thai - in numbers sufficient to form another majority government as early as next Monday, there are ominous indications that, buoyed by their airport success, the yellow-clad People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) will blockade parliament and prevent it from reconvening.

This crisis is a manifestation of deep-seated divisions in Thai society which intermittently erupt through the superficial cheerfulness presented to visitors and the world at large.

Since the end of World War 2, there have been 17 military coups in the country.

The last was mounted just two years ago and led to the ousting of then billionaire prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, widely accused of corruption and of "offending the monarchy".

The subsequent election in 2007 saw the rise of Mr Thaksin's heir, and brother-in-law, Somchai Wongsawat, now dismissed on charges of vote-buying and corruption.

Mr Thaksin and his party's allies broadly represent the rural masses.

Their opponents, the People's Alliance for Democracy, the brighly coloured airport protesters among them, are fervent supporters of the monarchy and the urban middle-class elite.

The past episode, with its limited but telling outbreaks of violence, has only served to fuel the bitterness between the two groups.

Where it will end is as yet unclear, but there are forces, supportive of Pad, who would argue for a semi-permanent dissolution of the elected government.

Bangkok Post articles - as quoted by the UK Guardian - have willingly entertained a move away from "democracy": "A country can survive without democracy but it can't survive without law"; and, "The politicians are the main problem and a liability in our democracy."

Observers believe a likely outcome could be a suspension of the constitution by the judiciary and the appointment of an interim council, mainly of judges, to rule the country.

This would only inflame the grievances of the pro-government Democratic Alliance Against Dictatorship (DAAD) which has already labelled this week's dissolution as a "judicial coup".

And any further moves by Pad to "monitor political developments", as it has promised, may lead to violent confrontations with pro-government supporters.

So far, large-scale violence and bloodshed has been avoided: the airport blockade is over, the government is dissolved, but Thailand's real problems may only just be beginning.

 

 

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