Time for Britain to change course

What a mess. The deadline for Britain’s departure from the European Union, March 29, inexorably closes in.

Britain, despite Prime Minister Theresa May negotiating a draft deal with EU negotiators and apparently securing its passage through Cabinet, remains acutely divided.  Senior resignations from the ruling Conservative Party and its deep divisions mean Mrs May’s agreement is going nowhere.  Everyone in the party is unhappy with it.

Mrs May’s future as leader, meanwhile, is bleak.  The Eurosceptic block in the party feel betrayed.  The deal does not give the people what they voted for: control over immigration, trade and regulations.

Remainers, for their part, say it will hurt the British economy far more than staying in the Union.

The compromises, which the EU might be able to agree with, could well be the worst of both worlds.  And, at the same time, the can is just kicked down the road on key issues, like the state of the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland, like free movement of people (just agreed in principle) and on trade.

Basically, Mrs May is in an impossible position.  Brexit was foolish from the start.  Whatever she tried to do was going to be unacceptable one way or another.

Britain is, as it should be, inextricably tied to Europe through commerce and through people.  Romantic ideas of making an independent Britain great again were foolish and illusionary.  The pro-Brexiters, often through blatant misinformation, sold the people a lame ass.

As with the original Brexit referendum, promulgated by former prime minister David Cameron for reasons to do with Conservative leadership rather than principle, observers must wonder if Labour, too, is concerned with power rather than what is best for Britain.

It is likely to have the opportunity, in the face of Conservative weakness and division, to win potentially a no-confidence vote in Parliament at some stage soon and a subsequent election.

But the priority has to be on Brexit and Britain needs the chance to vote again on the issue.  Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn must cast aside his ambivalence and lead on this issue.

The vote itself was just 52% to 48%.  But what is much more critical than the narrowness in favour of such a momentous decision is the information that has emerged since.  The British people did not know what they were voting for, and need to be given another chance.

This would not be without risks.

There are fears of unrest, of culture divisions that will divide the land as is occurring in the United States, and of right-wing nationalism surging.

While polls now favour remaining in the EU,  voters around the world are damning the establishment of every  hew and casting ballots that, on rational reckoning, fly against their  interests. After all, parts of England likely to suffer most by "leaving"  voted most strongly in 2016 for Brexit.

But every scenario is risky.  If, as increasingly looks likely, an agreement cannot be reached, a "hard" Brexit could take place and Britain would "crash" out.  Economic damage could be sharp and Britain could face trade tariffs, price rises and even food and medicine shortages.  There are fears of a return to nationalist violence should the strict Irish border be reinstated. Short-term chaos and pain are expected.  The longer term is harder to predict, although London’s place as a premier financial centre is being damaged seriously .

Mrs May has argued that rejecting her deal "would take us all back to square one".  She is largely correct on that score, and that is with only four and a-half months to go to the end of next March.

The leaders of the main parties, including an original "remainer" in Mrs May,  have been against another vote, arguing, in part, that it undermines what was legitimate democratic vote.   But momentum is growing for another ballot, and that is becoming the least bad option.  The time is overdue for Britain to reverse its ill-advised course.