A government performing at this level can be confident of re-election. Dropping below five out of 10 in the Ipsos survey, however, is not the least bit confidence-building.
Historically speaking, a government whose handling of the big issues of the day scores in the fours is heading for defeat.
In the latest Ipsos survey, commissioned by RNZ, the government rates a catastrophic 3.9 out of 10 — the lowest result recorded since the survey began in September 2017.
Out of the top eight issues identified by respondents, National is considered the voters’ best bet only in regard to law and order. On the key question of which party is likely to manage the economy most effectively, Labour has overtaken National.
With less than a year to go until the general election, this is not where National and its coalition partners wanted to be.
The prospect of Christopher Luxon’s coalition becoming the first right-wing government since World War 2 to serve only a single term grows increasingly likely.
But why? Generally speaking, when it comes to electoral politics New Zealanders are a pretty forgiving bunch. For the voters to deny a newly elected government a second term, its management of national affairs has to have gone spectacularly awry.
More than bad luck is at play in these sudden reversals, more than bad management. Governments get turfed out after only one term because deep in its gut the electorate feels duped, disappointed and betrayed.
Arnold Nordmeyer, minister of finance in the Second Labour Government (1957-60), was never forgiven for his infamous "Black Budget". Inheriting a serious balance of payments crisis from the National government it had narrowly defeated, Labour opted to rectify the situation by early and drastic action. A key element of Nordmeyer’s strategy involved raising the excise duty on the "working man’s pleasures" — booze and baccy. Labour’s core voters felt betrayed, "their party" should have known better — even the unions said so.
It didn’t matter that Nordmeyer’s Budget successfully resolved the crisis, or that Labour’s expansive industrialisation policies laid the groundwork for the next 20 years of New Zealand’s economic development; the party of the workers had kicked its own followers in the guts, and for that there had to be a reckoning.
The fate of the Third Labour Government (1972-75) was decided by death and oil. Much more than an exacting Budget drove New Zealanders into the arms of National’s pugilistic populist, Rob Muldoon.
The unexpected death of Norman Kirk robbed Labour voters of a political leader who towered above his political opponents. Intuitively, they understood that his departure left them weaker and more vulnerable. No matter how irrational, there was, once again, a sense of betrayal.
Compounding the loss of their beloved leader and protector was the all-too-evident end of the economic golden weather, brought on by the oil cartel Opec’s staggering increases in fuel prices.
Kirk’s government had arrived in blissful economic sunshine; his successor, Bill Rowling, was forced to govern in the shadow of a gathering economic storm. Labour had raised expectations it could not fulfil — and it paid the price.
The Ipsos results suggest strongly that the National-led coalition is falling foul of the same voter reflexes that felled the Second and Third Labour Governments.
In 2023, Luxon and his coalition partners were seated on the Treasury benches to "get the country back on track". The Left’s economic numpties and cultural vandals, over-excited children in spaces best reserved for adults, were shown the door.
The votes cast for the Right were votes for economic competence, cultural restoration and the return of common sense and decency. What the electorate got instead was a bunch of arrogant fixers: men and women prepared to go to almost any lengths to ensure that no financial donation went unrecognised, or unrewarded.
Simple ethics and long-standing conventions have been cast aside. Administrative obstacles are being bulldozed flat and political critics vilified in an unprecedented orgy of crony capitalism.
More to the point, the economy is not fixed, and the cultural vandalism continues. The country remains derailed.
It feels like a betrayal.
Unfazed, the government continues to insist that it governs for everybody: farmers and businessmen alike.
But, as Ipsos’ 3.9 result makes clear, that ain’t enough.
■ Chris Trotter is an Auckland writer and commentator.
