Oamaru and Waimate are set to register the driest Novembers either area has experienced since records began.
And the "main contributor" to the dry spell seems poised to deliver a warm, dry summer for the rest of the province as well, the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa) says.
Releasing its three-month climate summary yesterday, Niwa principal forecasting scientist Chris Brandolino said La Nina conditions in the tropical Pacific were bringing higher pressure than normal to the south and southeast of the country.
There was a 70% chance the South Island, from coastal Canterbury through to Southland, would be hotter than normal for the next three months.
And there was a 45% chance rainfall totals would be below normal in the west, with relatively even odds that in the east it would be near normal (40% chance) or below normal (35% chance).
"That [La Nina conditions] is the driving force - that leads to this strong area of high pressure which has produced basically settled conditions.
"That’s why we’re expecting, for the east of the South Island... if there’s going to be dryness in the country for the whole summer season it’s likely to be in the South Island, particularly in the west, but there’s also a chance for the east of the South Island.
"It has been dry everywhere, but if that dryness persists, problems could arise quite quickly."
Niwa’s data shows Oamaru received only 6.2mm of rain in November, which would be the driest November on record since records began in 1941, while Waimate received 8.2mm, the driest November on record since records began in 1898.
Its weekly hotspot watch showed soil moisture levels in the South Island had generally decreased over the past week, except for a small increase in Central Otago due to thunderstorm activity.
The driest soils across the South Island compared to normal for this time of year were in Westland, interior mid-Canterbury, Tasman, western Southland, and in Stewart Island, while the wettest were in Otago.
Isolated hotspots are in the northern Marlborough and Tasman Districts as well as across interior middle and southern Canterbury and the Clutha District.
Over the past week, hotspots have developed in upper Canterbury and SouthlandMr Brandolino said at this time of the year, the soil was losing 4mm or more of moisture every day to the atmosphere from the ground.
"You multiply that by seven days a week, and you’re talking 25mm or 30mm of moisture you lose to the atmosphere.
"If you don’t get that in, like any budget if you’re spending more than you’re making, you’re going to be in deficit."
North Otago farmers spoken to by the Otago Daily Times yesterday said that with a good amount of moisture in the ground, the dry spell had not been overly problematic.
North Otago meat and fibre chairman Greg Ruddenklau, a Five Forks farmer, said the area "had a really good spring, with a lot of rain up until the beginning of November, so everyone’s off to a pretty good start".
"I think areas outside of North Otago are probably worse off from what I’ve been hearing," he said.
"It’s still green, you know. Everything’s still nice and green."
People would "probably start to panic a bit" if the dry spell continued for the next two months "because that’s when the weaning starts for the sheep guys".
