Recession - what recession? It's all right here in the Waitaki district, David Bruce reports from Oamaru.
There has been a quiet revolution in the Waitaki district in the past 10 years, with unprecedented economic growth.
In the 1980s and early 1990s, the district suffered from population decline, high unemployment and a struggling agricultural base, with businesses and industries suffering.
But since the turn of the century, key indicators have improved and there has been quiet optimism.
Now, a report from economic analyst Business Economic and Research Ltd has put concrete figures around what is happening in the district, identifying that Waitaki has done better than the national average in eight key areas.
That report says, "2007 saw a significant improvement in fortunes for Waitaki''.
The report, prepared for the Waitaki Development Board, provides an overview of the district's economic performance in the year to March 31, 2007, comparing it with the rest of New Zealand.
It also looks at the performance over a 10-year period, from 1997 to 2007, which shows the "significant improvement in fortunes'' was not a one-off.
In the year to the end of March last year, employment has grown to the extent there is a labour shortage, labour productivity has improved, the size and number of businesses has grown, tourism is booming, house sales and prices have rocketed and dairying has expanded.
The analysis in the report for the 10 years from 1997 to 2007 shows it is being sustained.
That comes at a time when population decline has been reversed - you only have to drive around the district and see the number of new houses, particularly on dairy farms, being built to realise that.
The latest figures show the population has stabilised and is expected to grow slightly in further reports.
In the job market, employment "grew an impressive 4.3% in Waitaki'' in 2006-07, compared with 2% nationally.
"Increases in employment within any sector, beyond being good for the economic wellbeing of the district, suggests confidence in the medium-term future...,'' the report said.
In 2007, Waitaki had 8700 in full-time employment in 2800 businesses generating $753 million - growing faster than the New Zealand average.
In 2006, there were 8300 full-time equivalent jobs in 2600 businesses generating $684 million. Waitaki's productivity rose 2% in the year, better than the New Zealand average.
Waitaki's economic output, reflected in gross domestic product, grew by 2%, a far better performance than in the previous 2005-06 year when it declined by 5.7%. The turnaround could be reflected by the more stable population.
Confidence in the future of the district was also reflected in new businesses. Waitaki showed a strong increase, while New Zealand experienced flat growth.
"Rather than large numbers of new businesses being formed, existing businesses were expanding,'' the report said.
Every sector, apart from the primary sector, saw an increase in business in that year, with manufacturing and building leading the way with an extra 25 businesses, or 8.4% growth.
The business services sector also grew, adding 20 new businesses, a 3.3% rise. Most of those gains were in property services and finance.
Existing businesses also showed strong growth, again reflecting confidence in the medium-term future of the district.
The strongest growth was in the social-services sector, which experienced a 13% rise. Retail and distribution followed up on solid growth experienced in the 2005-06 year, with 3.2% growth in the 2006-07 year.
Tourism continues to develop in the district, now contributing $31.3 million a year (compared with $29.2 million the previous year) to the local economy, with 540 full-time equivalent jobs (510) and supporting 160 businesses (144).
The growth in tourism was better than the national average, employment in that sector increasing by 6.4% compared with New Zealand's 1.9% rise.
Cafes, restaurants, accommodation, hotels and bars have had the most employment growth attributable to tourism.
Six new dairy herds and an additional 6000 cows were added to the agriculture sector, an 11.8% increase compared with 2.2% nationally, although sheep numbers remained stable at 891,000.
House sales rose substantially, along with prices, which still remained far lower than the national average.
Total house sales for the 2006-07 year at 700 were up 29% on the previous year, while the average house price rose from $132,000 in 2004 to $196,000 in 2007, an average of 14.2% per annum and better than the national average.
The 10-year report from 1997 to 2007 also identified key areas of growth in the district: Labour productivity outshone the New Zealand average, the number of businesses increased 1.1% per annum, manufacturing and building was the largest sector for employment, and the primary sector had the most business units.
