If the Otago Nuggets reach that many wins, they would give themselves a good chance of being in next month’s National Basketball League Final Four in Porirua.
However, they may find themselves in a shoot-out with the Canterbury Rams on July 17 for that fourth spot.
The top three of the Southland Sharks, Wellington Saints and Hawke’s Bay Hawks all look good bets to make it.
At present the Nuggets are in fourth with five games to play and an eight win, five loss record.
The Rams follow with a
6-6 record, although they added significant quality last week.
Joe Cook-Green and Max Darling are both back and Perth Wildcats guard Taylor Britt could return at the conclusion of the Australian NBL finals.
They will also enter as hot favourites to beat the Franklin Bulls and Manawatu Jets this week, which would lift them to eight wins.
They also have a home game against the Nelson Giants they will be favourites for, while two games against the Southland Sharks could go either way.
It is not unrealistic that they could have 10 wins by the time they travel to Dunedin for that last round game.
Two wins in the next four games would give the Nuggets a very good shot of setting up an effective quarterfinal.
Sunday’s game against the Auckland Huskies, who are also 6-6, is close to a must-win.
That leaves a tough stretch against the Hawks, Sharks and Saints.
If they can find a win among those three matches it would take them to 10 wins — which would place them well going into the final weekend.
The Huskies remain in the race.
However, with four away games and a schedule including the Sharks in Invercargill and Saints, they are an outside chance — especially if the Nuggets beat them this weekend.
Meanwhile, the Nelson Giants (5-6) would likely have to go unbeaten and rely on other results going their way.
It would be a big ask to displace the top three.
The Sharks (10-3), Saints (9-2) and Hawks (9-3) all have solid platforms.
The Hawks are capable of going unbeaten to the end of the season.
But games against the Franklin Bulls, Taranaki Mountainairs and Manawatu Jets should at least guarantee them 12 wins.
The Saints have got to play all three of those too and are more than capable of winning the rest of their games.
The Sharks have a tougher run in, with two games against the Rams, plus games against the Hawks, Nuggets and Huskies.
But four of those will be at home.
With 10 wins already and having shown it can beat the top teams, it seems likely they will find another win or two among those five matches.
