North Otago, with 20 points, lies sixth behind South Canterbury (20) and Buller (21).
The equation states that if North Otago beats Thames Valley today with a bonus point, and South Canterbury earns only four points against Mid Canterbury (16), and West Coast (12) continues its giantkiller form and beats Buller (21) and denies it a bonus point, then North Otago will finish fourth.
North Otago coach Barry Matthews only wants more of the same.
"We've just got to concentrate on our game and make sure that what we do, we do well.
"The first 50 minutes last week against Wairarapa-Bush we played some of the best rugby we've played this season.
"I think we've been getting better and better as the season has progressed, plus over the last couple of weeks we've had a more consistent side.
"But in this competition any team on any given day can beat any other team.
"Thames Valley may have scored a lot of points, but they've let a lot in. But to score tries you've got to have good attacking players and they have." Statistically, the sides are evenly matched.
North Otago has won four from seven and Thames Valley three from seven. North Otago has scored 19 tries to its opponent's 22, but both sides have leaked tries - North Otago 25, and Thames Valley 27.
North Otago has made one change. Nick Webster, who pulled a calf muscle against Wanganui, comes into the reserves, in place of Tyron Davies.
Thames Valley has a prodigious points scorer in second five-eighth, David Harrison who has scored 562 points, surpassing the previous record of 520 set by Glenn Dalgety.
Apart from Harrison, first five-eighth Reuben Meares has impressed Matthews.
"He's a good runner, has got a good left boot and is a solid tackler while they've got a North Otago boy, Lance Easton, at fullback." The top three sides, Wanganui, East Coast and Wairarapa-Bush, have relatively easy matches today.
Otago v Thames Valley
Oamaru, today
North Otago: Chris Talanoa, Rowan McKenzie, Lemi Masoe, Billy Guyton, Tim O'Malley, Hamish Buick, Tala Fagasoaia, Tony Lamborn, Jack Wolfreys, Sale Pi'I, Uilisoni Tahitua, Eric Duff, Rangi Hepi, Josh Collier, Ralph Darling (c). Reserves: Michael Paterson, Elliot Booley, Ian Cooney, Tom Verdonk, Nick Webster, Hamish McKenzie, Adam Barnard.
Thames Valley: Lance Easton, Caleb Brown, Joe Murray, David Harrison, Armyn Sanders, Reuben Meares, Richard Judd, Jackson Achilles (c), Bruce Jones, Brett Ranga, Petelo Sili, Te Ra Arthur, Klinton Wade , Blake Hill, Kieran Ramage. Reserves: Sam Ward, Konrad Williams, Callum Flynn, Adam Ryan, Aaron McDonald, Jason Laurich, Brooke Tremayne.
- Terry O'Neill.
