Dairy prices edge up 2.1%

Nathan Penny.
Nathan Penny.
Dairy prices edged up slightly in this week's GlobalDairyTrade auction, largely reversing the previous auction's fall.

While the 2.1% lift was small, any improvement in prices would be welcomed by the embattled dairy sector, Westpac senior economist Anne Boniface said.

Whole milk powder prices lifted 1.5%, cheese prices jumped 10.5% and skim milk powder prices were flat.

The whole milk powder price rises were concentrated in the near-dated delivery contracts, hinting at price pressure as the peak of New Zealand's season receded, ASB rural economist Nathan Penny said.

A key part of future price recovery was a supply response to the current low prices. New Zealand production would remain responsive and be weak again over the coming season.

Adjustment would also gradually occur within the EU, where production was showing tentative signs of tapering off after initially surging sharply when production quotas were removed.

EU farmers, like their New Zealand counterparts, were ‘‘feeling the pinch'' from low milk prices, the reality of which had soon replaced the ‘‘post-quota euphoria'', Mr Penny said.

Production was held back before the removal of quotas at the end of March last year as countries avoided paying the penalties associated with producing above quota.

Production surged after the removal of quotas. April production lifted more than 3% on a month-on-month basis.

But that post-quota surge had passed and production growth had slowed, particularly since July, as farmers had struggled with low milk prices.

That got lost in official EU data and annual comparisons overstated the recent trends in EU production growth, he said.

The European Commission showed from April 2015 to January this year production was about 4% higher than in the previous corresponding period.

In comparison, annualising the seasonally adjusted data over recent months showed EU production was falling or, at best, flat.

With most dairy market buyers unaware of that data disconnect, ASB expected some to be caught short of supply later this year. As that happened, global dairy prices were likely to climb.

Chinese import demand was also expected to gradually recover. Next season's NZD/USD conversion rate was also expected to be more favourable than the current season's.

ASB continued to expect the 2016-17 season's milk price would ultimately finish up at $6 but that Fonterra's initial forecast for the season, to be announced in May, would be closer to $5.

The ANZ commodity price index fell 1.3% in March, with dairy prices weighing heavily in the month.

Prices from the dairy (-4.5%), forestry (-0.7%) and seafood (-1.6%) categories were all down for the month. Tempering the fall was a 2% price rise in the meat category.

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