David Hughes was one of the main drawcards for the 580 delegates at the South Island Dairy Event in Lincoln on June 25. Organisers said the emeritus professor of food marketing at London's Imperial College was sought-after as a speaker around the world.
He grew up in Wales, moved to Canada and has lived and worked in the Caribbean, Africa and Southeast Asia. Prof Hughes liaises with governments to formulate food policy and helps develop business strategies for companies in the sector.
Fresh milk had become cheaper than water in most developed countries where he worked, he told the conference. It costs about $NZ1 a litre. Consumption was decreasing, especially in the United States, as alternatives gained market share.
Other reasons included slow or declining population growth in developed countries with a history of strong dairy consumption, an ageing population concerned by health issues such as saturated fat, and environmental issues, including methane emissions.
However, some high-income groups within those countries bought premium dairy goods such as artisan cheeses.
So although marketing into developed countries was hard work, there were opportunities, Prof Hughes said.
He recommended looking into whey as the product of the future, targeting baby boomers concerned about muscle-wasting and maintaining body condition.
''There's going to be a huge whey shortage.''
Prof Hughes said it would be hard for New Zealand to create dairy brands with world impact.
''Building brands takes an awful lot of time and big advertising bucks. Anlene is a very, very successful Fonterra brand, but you are not going to be a global brander. You won't let Fonterra do it - you want the money to be sent back to the farm, not spent on marketing.''
The future was not necessarily about big brands, though. In China, there was heavy competition from home-grown companies that knew their own market and how their people purchased.
In Britain, there was a move away from ''hyperstores'', with consumers opting for smaller convenience stores or online shopping.
The technology associated with shopping was ''growing massively'', he said. Tesco had its own television station, with advertisements based on what each customer bought. The stores had Wi-Fi, which sent messages to customers advising of special offers on products they were known to like.
There were also hints on how to make their diet healthier - a ''direct threat'' to dairy sales, Prof Hughes said.
Consumers, governments and big business were also driving the emphasis on sustainability and the environment, he said. Unilever, the world's biggest ice cream producer, had a 50-page manual of conditions potential suppliers must meet.
''Ethics, sustainability, provenance, the story of food is of increasing importance to shoppers, but they don't expect to pay more. They expect products to be green. We're obliged to get on the green train.''
While science showed us what we could do, society told us what we should do, Prof Hughes said. That could be frustrating for farmers.
''Don't get angry, get smarter.''
New Zealand had to manage its international reputation, he said. One factor in our favour was customers' wish for simplified supply chains.
''You're No 1 in integrity.''
We should ''exploit farmer ownership'', because customers wanted to hear from the people who produced their food. Farmers are fashionable, Prof Hughes said.
''Your most valuable asset is the trust consumers have in you. It's really fragile.''
The `100% pure New Zealand' slogan ''works so well for food and for dairy'', he said.
''Damaging that is dangerous.''