FPH growth predicted, little rise in shares

Lyn Howe.
Lyn Howe.
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare has an attractive growth outlook but Forsyth Barr broker Lyn Howe sees little scope for further share price rises after the company's investor day briefing.

Forsyth Barr downgraded FPH to neutral from outperform following a stellar share price performance. The attractive growth profile had been adequately captured.

Ms Howe lifted FPH's target share price to $12.60 from $11.80, driven by upgrading medium-term earnings which reflected strong growth expectations for the Optiflow product.

The investor day focused on FPH's consistent strategy, reinforcing the attractive growth path which could sustain double digit growth in the medium to long term, she said.

There was no material change in themes, insights or financial targets discussed but once again, FPH demonstrated the growth opportunities across its business with a comprehensive presentation focused on products, compelling clinical data and rationale for adoption of its technologies.

''FPH has a strong history of product innovation with the key focus on solving unmet needs of patients and caregivers. This was reinforced by a deep dive into the product development cycle and the company structure.''

FPH reiterated it had a strong product pipeline. Innovation and product development were critical drivers of future growth, she said.

Barriers to entry were more than just patents. FPH faced regulation, unique products, the difficulty in changing clinical practices, large and established sales forces and products where IP and innovation could be adapted across product categories.

Optiflow, nasal high-flow therapy, was in the spotlight at the investor day.

FPH's growth outside traditional invasive ventilation had been more than 20% for more than five years. The market opportunities were sizeable and it was still early days.

Optiflow was the key focus and near-term growth opportunity, supported by a growing body of clinical evidence, Ms Howe said.

Clinical research for Optiflow had accelerated in recent years, alongside evolving to larger trials, influential journals and different patient groups and settings.

''This is a critical component to drive growing adoption.''

FPH was still learning about the extent of the opportunity for use across the wider hospital sector. Over time, there was a risk to its longstanding stated potential market opportunity of 30 million patients as clinical evidence built outside the intensive care units.

FPH had low market penetration in the home care market compared with the sizeable opportunity for its nasal high flow therapy in the home.

''We view it [FPH] as an attractive medium to longer-term growth opportunity. The key hurdles are building and growing awareness of the clinical message behind the technology,'' Ms Howe said.

FPH shares last traded at $12.91, down 0.2c.


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