Important information to come just before election

Politicians will get their final chance to look at economic indicators on Wednesday and Thursday before Saturday’s election.

Early voting will have been going for 10 days before Statistics New  Zealand’s balance of payment figures are released on Wednesday.

On Thursday, New Zealand’s economic growth figures are released, along with the country’s increasingly controversial migration and international visitor numbers.

National has made much of its stewardship of the economy in the past nine years, managing to keep economic growth strong, despite a global financial crisis and major earthquakes.

Labour has criticised the Government for not sharing economic growth around equally, saying health issues and homelessness had been caused by neglect.

New Zealand First leader Winston Peters continues to say high migrant numbers are stealing jobs of young New Zealanders.

National, Labour and NZ First all have immigration policies advocating a change to the rules to restrict the numbers of people coming into New Zealand.

The balance of payments is the difference between payments into and out of a country over a set period.

ANZ senior economist Phil Borkin is forecasting a narrowing of New Zealand’s balance of payments deficit.

"After the slightly surprising blowout to $2.8 billion in March, we expect a seasonally adjusted deficit of $1.8 billion in June. That should result in a modest narrowing in the annual deficit to 3% of gross domestic product."

The narrowing in the quarter was almost entirely due to the goods and services balance, which was seen as shifting from a small deficit in March to a surplus of about $1 billion in June, he said.

A bounce in goods export volumes and a boost from stronger international tourist activity had led the improvement. That would offset a slightly larger income deficit, which was expected to widen on the back of better profitability of foreign companies operating in New Zealand.

ANZ expected GDP, or economic growth, of 0.7% in June, the BNZ expected 0.8% and the ASB came in with the lowest forecast of 0.6%.

ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley said his forecast of 0.6% would be the third consecutive quarter in which growth had been running at a sub-trend rate.

Elevated readings for confidence suggested the economy did not lack for key supports. However, despite a backdrop of strong demand, the economy might be running into capacity constraints and the economic expansion remained patchy.

"A weaker-than-expected result may prompt more questions at No2 The Terrace [Reserve Bank] but there are limits to what monetary policy can do at this juncture. It may be more prudent to save monetary policy ammunition."

The BNZ forecast of 0.8% was still below the Reserve Bank forecast of 0.9% and the Treasury forecast in the Pre-Election Fiscal Update (Prefu).

Mr Borkin said the primary and services sectors - especially retail - should make positive contributions to economic growth.

Net exports and private consumption drove expenditure-based growth.

"We’d see this as a somewhat of a middling result, as it is only a modest rebound from soft late-2016, early 2017 growth."

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