Care will be needed in interpreting labour-market data from the three months ended June which starts being released this morning.
BNZ economist Doug Steel believes the labour market is improving.
"In fact, there is plenty of evidence to suggest the gains have been quite strong.
"This is one clear message from very strong employment intentions from a variety of business surveys."
Labour supply might well be struggling to keep up with the buoyant demand for staff, Mr Steel said yesterday.
First, the participation rate was already at a high level, meaning there was now a relatively small pool of people outside the labour force that could be called upon in need.
Second, there had been net emigration from New Zealand in recent months, stunting growth in the working-age population.
Third, the overall unemployment rate at 6.6% was not particularly high given the challenges the economy had faced in the past few years.
With the youth unemployment rate - a "staggering" 27.5% - included in the overall rate, the availability of experienced or skilled labour was likely to be tighter than the headline unemployment would suggest, Mr Steel said.
"Given the combination of buoyant demand for labour and tightening supply, it is no surprise that firms are encountering more difficulty finding skilled staff and also less ease in finding unskilled workers," Mr Steel said.
Today's wage inflation data from the labour cost index and quarterly employment survey were likely to reflect that underlying picture.
The private-sector labour cost index was expected to increase 0.5% in the June quarter, pushing annual inflation up to 2.1%.
However, Mr Steel warned of possible volatility in Thursday's household labour force survey.
He had forecast a mild 0.2% fall in employment in June, essentially because of the recent patterns rather than any fundamental view.
Participation could also fall back slightly to 68.4% to keep unemployment close to the present 6.6%.
Annual employment growth was forecast at 1.8%.
There was a risk the market would take any deterioration in the survey headlines as "fundamental slippage", Mr Steel said.
The risk was heightened by the survey being the first since the February 22 quake in Christchurch, an obvious candidate for a deterioration.
"Sure, such a result is possible but it would be so diametrically opposed to the weight of other evidence, it would be difficult to trust," he said.
