The word ''uncertainty'' is being bandied around a lot as the September 23 election approaches but New Zealand businesses are full of confidence and expectation.
Three recent business or consumer confidence surveys have confirmed New Zealanders remain optimistic about their prospects. A blip in Otago has been put down to concerns over immigration policy and a lack of skilled labour.
Otago is also one of the more conservative regions in the country, not experiencing the highs and lows. Putting off a large household purchase and paying down debt is seen as prudent as interest rates rise.
BNZ senior economist Craig Ebert said on Friday the ANZ business outlook conducted in June provided the latest proof of how confident businesses were.
Far from doing a ''nervous Nelly'', the survey's net confidence index strengthened to 25 points, from 15.
Own-activity expectations burgeoned to 43 from 38.
''These results were better still when we seasonally adjust them, and consistent with annual real GDP growth in the order of 4%.''
However, the economy would not be able to achieve such a strong degree of expansion, especially when capacity constraints were biting on most fronts, he said.
Constraints were starting to seriously limit the ability to grow, even though the demand-side indicators were pushing hard for it.
''In this, we continue to ask questions of those who judge the economy is not only devoid of resource pressures but is still running some spare capacity.
''The Treasury took this line in the May Budget and we strongly beg to differ.''
Mr Ebert believed this week's New Zealand Institute of Economic Research's Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion would support the BNZ view.
More broadly, the QSBO would echo the positive messages of the monthly ANZ survey.
Capacity pressure was integral to the inflation risks the BNZ economists believed the Reserve Bank was taking with its low-for-much-longer approach to its official cash rate - already at a record low, he said.
The Reserve Bank did not appear to be in any mind for change, judging by the OCR missive it issued last week.
The Consumer Price Index measure of inflation had been dampened by the recent drop in oil prices and the recent wriggle higher in the New Zealand dollar.
But it would be a bold person to suggest inflation would fade away as an underlying issue when there had not only been a stretch in inflation but an expectation of firms' raising their prices.
From a general perspective, it was interesting inflation expectations in the ANZ survey came in at 2.03% in June from 2% in May, Mr Ebert said.
BNZ head of research Stephen Toplis now expected the Reserve Bank to hold back on lifting the official cash rate for ''a considerable period'' even though other central banks were showing signs of aggression.
''With some trepidation, we are now formally pushing back our expectation of a first OCR rate hike to mid-2018 from the first quarter of 2018.
''There remains huge uncertainty around the timing of the move and we are certainly not ruling out a February rate hike.''
But a May or August move was a better reflection of the BNZ's central view of the Reserve Bank's reaction.
The BNZ's view remained significantly more aggressive than the central bank and modestly more so than the market, he said.
Mr Toplis incurred the wrath of Reserve Bank governor Graeme Wheeler recently with his comments about the action, or lack of it, from the central bank.
Mr Wheeler leaves the job just after the election.
Mr Toplis said the BNZ economists had long held the belief the process of monetary tightening would be in three stages.
Given the bank's current forecasts had no increase in rates until late 2019 or early 2020, it would be difficult to justify a lift in rates any time soon without first acknowledging the time for doing so was no longer distant.
The first action was likely to be to go to a tightening basis, the second to formally bring any prospective tightening and the third would be to ''pull the trigger'', he said.
Given the Reserve Bank did not seem to like shifting its stance at OCR reviews, the process needed to evolve over three consecutive Monetary Policy Statements.
''If we are right, this would mean, at the earliest, an August 2017 move to a tightening basis, November bring forward the projected tightening and then February 2018, raise rates.''
Mr Toplis had thought the Reserve Bank would accede to the strength in the domestic economy and move to a tightening bias by August, at the latest.
The May MPS revealed no intent whatsoever to do that and the central bank restated its view it saw an equal chance of a rate cut as a rate hike.
As hard to believe as that was, it was the bank's stated view and could not be ignored, he said.
Mr Toplis noted forecasting the actions of the Reserve Bank over the next 12 months was more fraught with danger than normal.
In September, Mr Wheeler would depart. In March, deputy Grant Spencer would do likewise and a new governor would be appointed.
Even if the bank's mandate remained unchanged, it was known, from both past New Zealand experience and what had happened offshore, the culture of the central bank could change and even its interpretation of the ''rules'' could do likewise.
At the extreme, a new governor might even choose, with the support of the finance minister, to adjust the Policy Targets Agreement of keeping inflation at the mid-point of the 1% to 3% range.
''There is certainly significant precedence for this. And last, but not least, We do have a general election which could conceivably deliver a new minister of finance with a very different view of how the Reserve Bank should operate.''
