No big surprises expected in forecast

Either no change or a small 10c trim is predicted when Fonterra updates its 2015-16 milk price forecast tomorrow.

While an informal market survey hinted a reduction from $4.60 to $4.50, ASB rural economist Nathan Penny was expecting the co-operative to stick to its current forecast.

A 10c forecast revision was "hardly worth the effort'' at this point of the season.

About half of this season's auction volumes had been sold, so there remained scope for prices to rise by enough by the end of the season for the $4.60 forecast to hold, Mr Penny said.

Despite the recent price weakness, other dairy companies had also not been in a rush to cut their forecasts.

Westland has maintained its forecast at $4.90-$5.30, before retentions, while Synlait confirmed its $5 forecast last month.

Fonterra's board was also due to announce whether to extend the co-op support loan to farmers, which it introduced to help deal with the tough financial climate.

The ongoing level of support for farmers would have an impact on farm cashflows, while also impacting on the co-operative's balance sheet, he said.

Meanwhile, farmer confidence has risen sharply from near-decade lows, largely driven by improved sentiment about dairy industry prospects.

While there were still more farmers expecting the rural economy to deteriorate than those expecting it to improve, overall confidence has improved considerably from the previous quarter, the latest Rabobank rural confidence survey showed.

The overall reading shot upwards to a negative net confidence level of -6% from -39% last survey.

The survey, completed last month, found the number of farmers expecting the rural economy to improve in the next 12 months had climbed to 24%, up from 14% last quarter, 44% were expecting similar conditions (up from 32%) and the number expecting the rural economy to worsen fell to 30%, down from 53%.

Since the last survey in late August, global dairy prices had showed some improvement following a string of 10 consecutive price falls in the GlobalDairyTrade auction, Rabobank New Zealand general manager for country banking Hayley Moynihan said.

While auctions in November eroded some of the gains made during September and October, there was another small recovery in the most recent auction in early December.

The improved farmer confidence levels illustrated a greater number of farmers now shared Rabobank's view that dairy commodity prices would lift to more sustainable levels in the next 12 months, Ms Moynihan said.

Expectations of sheep and beef farmers for their own business in the coming 12 months was slightly more positive than their dairy counterparts, but less positive than in the previous quarter.

The survey illustrated dairy farmers were well aware the immediate future would still be very tough.

Cash flows remained very tight; 55% of dairy farmers surveyed expected working capital requirements to increase for the 2015-16 season, despite 59% expecting on-farm expenditure to reduce.

"Farmers have significantly pared back costs from their businesses. However, some expenditure deferred remains essential for longer-term viability and we expect many farmers will need to invest in pasture management and plant replacement over the coming months.

"This, combined with the reduced income, means many farmers will require additional funding to get through the season,'' Ms Moynihan said.

The survey also indicated 52% of dairy farmers intended making changes to their farming systems in the next two years.

Of those, 58% suggested that change would be to a less intensive system.

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