OCR left unchanged at 5.5%

Reserve Bank governor Adrian Orr. Photo: RNZ (file)
Reserve Bank governor Adrian Orr. Photo: RNZ (file)
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand stuck to the script and left the official cash rate unchanged at 5.5 percent, confirming an end to its 21-month tightening campaign.

The central bank, as signalled in May, said the current level of the benchmark interest rate was having the desired effect of slowing the economy and inflation, but dashed any hopes that it might loosen policy any time soon.

"The level of interest rates are constraining spending and inflation pressure as anticipated and required," the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) said in a statement this afternoon. 

"The committee agreed that the OCR will need to remain at a restrictive level for the foreseeable future, to ensure that consumer price inflation returns to the 1-to-3 percent annual target range, while supporting maximum sustainable employment."

It said inflation, currently at an annual rate of 6.7 percent, was expected to keep falling as would inflation expectations, with a slowing global economy, an easing in supply chain disruptions, cooler labour and housing markets.

It estimated that inflation would be back in the target band in the second half of 2024.

The summary of the MPC meeting showed no concerns about the strong surge in migration, which it said was filling skills shortages while adding some demand pressure for housing.

The committee acknowledged that high interest rates were causing pain with some borrowers.

"However, early indicators point to only a moderate increase in stressed lending over the coming months and non-performing loans remain at very low levels," as it forecast an average mortgage rate of around 6 percent next year.

ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley said the decision and statement had no surprises.

"We remain of the view that the RBNZ has done enough to get inflation under control. The bank will remain wary for the time being so won't relax."

He said that meant the OCR would stay up around current levels well into next year.

"We don't expect OCR cuts until May next year, give or take," Tuffley said.

A minority view among economists is that the RBNZ will be forced to tackle stubborn inflation pressures with another 25 basis point rise to 5.75 percent, possibly in November.

Speaking from Vilnius in Lithuania earlier today, Labour leader Chris Hipkins ruled out introducing a wealth tax or capital gains tax if the party was re-elected in October.