RBA likely to hold cash rate

Craig Ebert.
Craig Ebert.
The Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to hold its official cash rate at 1.5% at its September board meeting today in what has been called something of a non-event.

BNZ senior economist Craig Ebert said after cutting the cash rate twice in the last four months, unless the economy was clearly deteriorating dramatically, the RBA would likely wait and assess the impact on the previous easing of rates on the Australian economy.

The National Australia Bank did not expect a further move by the RBA this year, he said.

In the text of the statement by governor Glenn Steven's last meeting, it would be interesting to see any commentary in relation to both the Australian housing market and any further guidance as to how the bank saw current momentum in the labour market, Mr Ebert said.

In New Zealand, the Reserve Bank was due to make its next OCR decision in two weeks and, once again, the bank was likely to have to do the heavy lifting on the strength of the New Zealand dollar and its impact on inflation.

ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley said the situation had changed since the chances of a rate hike from the US Federal Reserve had fallen following the most recent employment report released on Friday night.

The non-farm payrolls report showed the US generated 151,000 additional new jobs in August.

''While far being from a poor result, it missed the consensus estimate of 180,000 and was shy of the 200,000 many were looking for to trigger a reaction from the Fed at the September 22 meeting.''

If the date of September 22 felt familiar, it was because it was the same day as the Reserve Bank's OCR decision, albeit the US decision would come in the early hours in New Zealand, he said.

The chances of a September interest rate rise in the US, which would strengthen the US currency against the kiwi, fell following the payrolls data and now stood about 20%. While it did not help the Reserve Bank much, it did at least make the picture for the next few months clearer.

''The Reserve Bank has been looking for the US to hike for much of the year, although it didn't explicitly say, but seems to have run out of patience by August, cutting the OCR 0.25% to 2%.''

Another cut was unlikely for September as the Reserve Bank having stated a strong preference for moving at a full monetary policy statement, leaving OCR meetings - such as on September 22 - as an option for emergencies, Mr Tuffley said.

The chances of such an emergency in the next few weeks were slim. There was plenty of domestic data due in the new few weeks, in sharp contrast to the recent barren run, but there was no inflation or inflation expectations data.

Second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data was due the week before the OCR. Given how many components, or indicators of them were already out, the odds of a collapse in the data was very low, he said.

''We now expect a thumping 1.2% quarter-on-quarter result.''

Dairy prices had also rebounded substantially in a short space of time and another lift was expected at this week's auction.

That left the expected rates path for the Reserve Bank intact.

That meant no move in September followed by a 0.25% cut in November. The chances of a cut by November were about 78%.

Recent rhetoric by the Reserve Bank also indicated the bank, while recognising the need for more easing, did not see a move at a potentially destabilising pace.

Cuts of 0.5% were unlikely. Unless inflation expectations in the third-quarter consumer price index inflation data created new pressures, the OCR should close the year at 1.75%, Mr Tuffley said.

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