The recession is over and the outlook is improving, according to economic forecasters in the latest NZIER consensus forecasts survey.
Economic forecasters now believe the recession was shallower than expected earlier in the year. GDP forecasts for the March 2010 year have been revised up from minus 1.6 percent in June, to minus 0.4%.
The outlook for the following year is positive at 2.8%. But forecast ranges for the March 2011 year are in an unusually wide range from an anaemic 1.8 percent to a robust 3.7%.
The consensus are an average of New Zealand economic forecasts compiled from a survey of financial and economic agencies.
Forecasters expect unemployment to remain high at 7% over the March 2010 and March 2011 years, before improving to 6.3% in March 2012.
Prolonged elevated levels of unemployment will be a headwind for households and industries reliant on their spending.
Forecasters are also split on the exchange rate outlook, with widely diverging views of reclaiming recent highs in coming years to plumbing towards 2001 lows. Uncertainty on the exchange rate remains a key risk for exporters.
