ABN Amro Craigs broker Chris Timms believes it is a 50-50 call on whether Mr Tindall goes for another takeover or the supermarkets contest the decision, given that they have already staked more than $350 million between them so far.
Mr Timms said Mr Tindall, as 48.2% shareholder, was now just as likely to relaunch his separate takeover bid, especially with the share price almost halving since his last tilt at gaining control of the Red Shed empire, when it was valued at $1.8 billion.
Following the news on Wednesday, shareholders bailed out of Warehouse stock and it plunged 60c per share, closing down almost 16% at $3.22 at the end of the day's trading.
Three months after hearing the appeal, the Court of Appeal on Wednesday overturned an earlier lower court decision, and will not allow rivals Australian-owned Woolworths or the combined three co-operatives of Foodstuffs to launch takeover bids.
The Commerce Commission took the action to the Court of Appeal on the grounds that if The Warehouse was taken over by either supermarket chain it would have resulted in a substantial lessening of competition.
ABN Amro Craigs broker Chris Timms said the most likely scenario was for the supermarkets to lodge an appeal in the Supreme Court, given their respective multi-million dollar stakes, purchased when the shares were worth considerably more.
"The consensus is they have invested so much to date that they will go to the Supreme Court," he said when contacted on Wednesday.
He noted that the widespread distribution of the Red Sheds around the country, "which can never be replicated" because of the high costs involved, was a paramount consideration for the supermarkets.
Despite the present global credit crunch and scarcity of money to borrow, Mr Tindall was still likely to have the financial backing from a private equity firm to relaunch his bid, Mr Timms said.
"If he were to offer a similar price ($5.75) per share I'm sure shareholders would jump at it," he said.
However, Mr Tindall was more likely to take a considered approach and offer $4.50-$5 per share, but he would want to "woo" Woolworths and Foodstuffs for their shares in order to gain at least a controlling 68% share in the company, Mr Timms said.
The two-year takeover saga began in July 2006 when Foodstuffs initially grabbed a $150 million, 10% stake in The Warehouse but, in mid-September, Mr Tindall launched a surprise $896 million takeover bid to buy the 51% of The Warehouse he did not already own, valuing the company at $1.8 billion.
However, 10 days later, Woolworths snatched a 10% stake for $196 million, with both stakes effectively blocking Mr Tindall's chances of gaining 90% acceptance of his takeover offer.
Mr Tindall's office was contacted for comment on Wednesday, but a spokesman said he was not giving interviews and held the view the next step "was up to grocers", and whether they decide to appeal the decision to the Supreme Court.
Mr Tindall said at the time of his bid that the strategy was based on the belief that The Warehouse could grow in new directions, but he accepted that required a significant investment which would carry significant investor risk.
The Commerce Commission said in a statement on Wednesday that the Court of Appeal decision on ownership of The Warehouse Group Ltd was "a victory for supermarket consumers and competition in markets".
Commerce Commission chairwoman Paula Rebstock said New Zealand consumers knew more competition was needed in the supermarket sector.
"In coming to its decision to decline the acquisition the commission considered that The Warehouse had already brought important new dimensions to supermarket competition, and potential competition through its innovative super-centre stores," she said.
In late June, The Warehouse announced a 10% after-tax profit downgrade to between $84 million and $88 million, from $94 million to $98 million.
The contributing factor was a marked downturn in consumer spending since the end of May, which significantly reduced The Warehouse's sales and margin expectations for the remainder of its financial year.
