Variances in many of Government’s forecasts

The Government's financial accounts remain a lottery.

There are large variances in many of the forecasts supplied by the Treasury compared with the actual results for the four months ended October.

Also, in a change of from the usual, Finance Minister Bill English did not rush out a statement commending his Government for its fiscal prudence and congratulating his department for keeping Crown spending under control - something he has done each month for the past seven years.

The accounts showed the operating balance before gains and losses (obegal) was a deficit of $485million at the end of October compared with a forecast deficit of nearly $1.2billion.

The operating balance, which includes the gains and losses made by Crown investments, was a deficit of $867million compared with a forecast deficit of $110million.

Volatility in equity markets meant the New Zealand Superannuation Fund recorded losses on investments of $249million in the period, $926million below forecast.

Core Crown revenue was $236million higher than expected mainly because of tax revenue being $367million higher than expected.

Corporate tax was up 8.1%, or $239million, source deduction was up 1.2% and other direct direct tax revenue was $72million, or 8.9%, below forecast.

Core Crown expenses were $155million lower than forecast.

The accounts showed the obegal deficit in October last year was $1billion and the operating deficit was $998million, both higher than this year.

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