New polling from TVNZ-Verian shows a Green surge and the left bloc able to win government - presuming National refuses to work with the Opportunity Party.

The pollster modelled two possibilities based on how many electorates Te Pāti Māori wins - either four Māori seats plus one for Mariameno Kapa-Kingi's Te Tai Tokerau party, but in both scenarios Opportunity would hold the balance of power.

With National's leader Christopher Luxon having ruled out working with Opportunity, they would be expected to form a government with the left bloc.

  • National: 28 percent, down 1 (34 seats)
  • Labour: 28 percent, down 2 (34 seats)
  • Greens: 16 percent, up 4 (19 seats)
  • ACT: 11 percent, up 2 points (14 seats)
  • NZ First: 9 percent, up 1 (11 seats)
  • Te Pāti Māori: 1 percent, steady (4 seats)
  • Te Tai Tokerau party: 1 seat

Some 13 percent did not know or refused to say who they would vote for.

On the preferred prime minister stakes Christopher Luxon, Chlöe Swarbrick and David Seymour all made two-point gains, while Chris Hipkins was down one-point, and Winston Peters remained steady.

Preferred prime minister:

  • Christopher Luxon: 19 percent - up 2 points
  • Chris Hipkins: 14 percent - down 1
  • Chlöe Swarbrick: 8 percent, up 2
  • David Seymour: 7 percent, up 2
  • Winston Peters: 7 percent, steady

The poll surveyed 1004 eligible voters and was weighted for demographics, with a margin of error of 3.4 percent at the 95 percent confidence interval. It was conducted between 23 and 27 September.

Party support percentages have been rounded up or down to whole numbers, except those less than 4.5 percent, which are reported to one decimal place. The data has been weighted to align with Stats NZ population counts for age, gender, region, ethnic identification and education level. The sample for mobile phones is selected by random dialling using probability sampling, and the online sample is collected using an online panel. Undecided voters, non-voters and those who refused to answer are excluded from the data on party support. The results are a snapshot in time of party support, and not a prediction.

Polls compare to the most recent poll by the same polling company, as different polls can use different methodologies. They are intended to track trends in voting preferences, showing a snapshot in time, rather than be a completely accurate predictor of the final election result.