New Prime Minister Chris Hipkins has given Labour an early boost in the polls, rising by five points in the 1News Kantar Public poll to 38 percent and overtaking National - just.
Another poll from Newshub-Reid Research has also shown Hipkins’ popularity with the public growing, with Labour rising nearly six percentage points to 38 percent and National dropping 4.1 points to 36.6 percent.
In the 1News Kantar Public poll, Hipkins has also gone straight from zero to 23 percent as preferred PM - while former PM Jacinda Ardern has plummeted immediately to just five percent. Luxon had dropped slightly to 22 percent as preferred PM.
That puts National and Labour - and Hipkins and Luxon - at almost level pegging in the poll.
“While I am encouraged by the poll results, we’ve still got a lot of work ahead of us,” Hipkins told 1News.
Labour was on 38 percent – up five points since the end of last November - while National had dropped one to 37 percent.
Act was on 10 percent (down 1), the Green Party on 7 percent (down 2) and NZ First had dropped back to 2 percent (down 2). Te Pāti Māori was on 1 percent.
The National Party/Act bloc would get 60 seats in Parliament and Labour and the Greens 58 seats, while the Māori Party would have two. That could result in a hung Parliament if Te Pāti Māori sided with Labour.
And there was a new face in the preferred Prime Minister rankings: Labour’s Kiri Allan came in at 1 percent.
The 1News Kantar Public poll of 1000 eligible voters was taken from last Wednesday, when Hipkins was sworn in as PM, until Sunday night after the Auckland floods. It has a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent.
Hipkins also got a high approval rating in his debut - 46 percent said they approved of the way he was doing the job while only 10 percent disapproved: a net approval rating of +36.
However, a large 45 percent said they did not yet know or were unsure.
Luxon’s net approval rating was +9 - 43 percent approved, 34 percent disapproved and 23 percent did not know.
Speaking to 1News, Luxon said it was “not unexpected” Labour’s new leader would get a boost in the polls.
Act’s David Seymour said Hipkins was more of the same for Labour. while Greens co-leader Marama Davidson told 1News she had anticipated the boost for Hipkins.
Te Pāti Māori co-leader Rawiri Waititi promised there would not be a hung Parliament and his party would be deciding who would be the next Government.
In the Newshub Reid-Research poll, the Green Party was on 8.8 percent, down 1.4 points. Act was up 0.7 points to 10.7 percent.
Te Pāti Māori was relatively steady on 1.8 percent and New Zealand First had dropped 1.1 points to 2.2 percent. The Opportunities Party was up 0.3 points to 1.5 percent.
On those results, National would get 46 seats and Act 14. Labour would receive 48 seats, the Greens 10 and if Te Pāti Māori went left, they could contribute their two seats. This would mean both blocs sit on 60 seats each, resulting in a hung Parliament.
The poll was taken from Sunday, January 22, the day Hipkins was confirmed as the new Labour leader and incoming Prime Minister, until Friday night.
Hipkins topped the preferred Prime Minister stakes, debuting at 19.6 percent, while Luxon dropped 2.7 points to 18.8 percent.
Jacinda Ardern was on 29.9 percent in the last poll, and Luxon 21.5 percent.
Asked if they trusted the main party leaders, 52.9 percent of respondents said they trusted Hipkins while 26.9 percent said no.
For Luxon meanwhile, just 36.9 percent trusted him, while 43.8 percent said they did not.
Hipkins told Newshub he was “encouraged by the early signs of support”.
He said he was “in it to win it”, but focused on providing leadership to the country until the election.
Act leader David Seymour said it would be a “fun election”.
“You’ve got Chris versus Chris. Chris-cross, Chris-cross.”
Luxon said the results were “not unexpected” with new leaders often getting a “bounce” in the polls. He said it was a long way to go until the election.
The polls come as Hipkins prepares to announce further Government support for Aucklanders hit by flooding damage after Cabinet meets on Tuesday, as well as his re-shuffle.
The most recent editions from both polling outfits indicated National and Act could govern together, with Labour falling behind.
The 1News Kantar Public poll, published on December 5, found National was on 38 percent, up 1 percentage point, and Labour was on 33 percent, down 1 point.
Act was on 11 percent, up 2 points. The Green Party was steady on 9 percent.
On those numbers, National would have 49 seats and Act having 15 - satisfying the 61 seats needed to form a Government.
The Newshub-Reid Research poll, published on November 6, had National on 40.7 percent, down 0.2 points, and Labour on 32.3 percent, down 5.9 points and its lowest result since Ardern became Labour leader in 2017.
Act was on 10 percent, up 3.6 points, with the Greens on 9.5 percent, up 1.1 points.
After visiting Auckland on Saturday, Hipkins spent Sunday and Monday working on his reshuffle and in talks to assess what Government support should go to Auckland businesses and people and how to deliver it.
A spokesperson for Hipkins recently said Auckland’s flooding could delay the reshuffle announcement, but it was expected the Prime Minister would discuss it in his post-Cabinet press conference on Tuesday.
It followed a meeting between Finance Minister Grant Robertson, Economic Development Minister Stuart Nash, Mayor Wayne Brown and Auckland Business Chamber chief executive Simon Bridges on Sunday.
Afterwards, Bridges tweeted that financial help for businesses impacted by the floods was discussed, and it was clear that a Mayoral Relief Fund would be the vehicle to deliver it.
He said it would allow the flexibility needed to respond - and that the main challenges businesses faced were weather damage, insurance claims and loss of income. He said the demand on tradespeople would make it difficult for many to get repairs done quickly.
He said it was not just a problem for the Government to resolve but also insurance companies and banks.
