Analysis by Craig McCulloch
The most telling line out of the Green Party’s AGM held over the weekend was not its claim to be leading the opposition, nor its ambitions on leading the next government.
Such lofty goals are to be expected as all parties try to motivate members at their annual conferences.
More interesting was an observation from co-leader Marama Davidson, dropped almost as an afterthought near the end of Sunday’s media conference.
"Setting the agenda isn’t just about numbers," she said. "We’ve got a government right now whose tail is being wagged by two smaller parties."
The subtext is clear: if Act New Zealand and New Zealand First can have a disproportionate influence — as David Seymour likes to put it — then why not the Greens, alongside perhaps, Te Pāti Māori?
That framing is politically dangerous for Labour.
National will seize on it, warning of a Labour government beholden to its minor partners. Remember previous attempts to tie Labour to the Greens’ wealth tax.
Those attacks might be undermined somewhat by its own coalition tensions, but they will be aided by Labour’s current policy paucity.
If Labour’s manifesto remains light on detail for too long, the Greens could end up setting the agenda and the terms of debate by default.
That is where the Greens’ claim of opposition dominance has some merit.
They have pumped out a suite of detailed policies on tax, climate and industrial strategy this term, while Labour has deliberately kept its powder dry.
Co-leader Chloe Swarbrick pointed to this year’s Budget day, claiming ministers spent most of their time talking about the Green Budget.
But that also proves the problem for Labour: Chris Hipkins and finance spokeswoman Barbara Edmonds spent weeks after the Budget being questioned about the Greens’ plan, to their obvious frustration.
Labour will look to correct that imbalance as the election gets closer. But in the meantime, it risks losing support to the Greens’ big talk.
Monday’s Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll suggests that has not happened yet.
The poll records Labour on 33.6% — the most popular party in Parliament — with the Greens just under 10%, more than 20% behind.
That severely undercuts the Greens’ self-styled role as the main force on the centre-left.
However, look deeper and the polling shows voters are lukewarm on all party leaders. Christopher Luxon and Chris Hipkins are level-pegging as preferred prime minister, but on numbers that would have been considered dire in previous cycles.
In that environment, a smaller party talking up its ability to call the shots could help mobilise its supporters — or it could alienate swing voters wary of instability.
Both would be a concern for Labour, although again, a similar tension will play out on the centre-right as well.
Ms Swarbrick’s push for the Greens to reach beyond its comfort zone — to miners, mill workers, even farmers — recognises the need to expand its base.
The question is whether those voters can realistically be convinced to back a party long associated with a different set of priorities and values.
For now, the Greens remain what they have been for years: a minor party with a loyal base and a clear agenda.
Their claims on leading the opposition are more marketing than reality. Still, in a race this tight, marketing might make the difference.
• Craig McCulloch is RNZ’s acting political editor.
